Thursday, February 17, 2005

Evaluating the Congress

UPDATE 11/3/06

For updated numbers, PLEASE GO HERE:
Evaluating Congress - 2006 Election Edition

Thank you.

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UPDATE - 2/22/05 6:24pm CST: A sincere welcome to all my friends from Brainter's Blog & PoliPundit! Feel free to look around a little, feel the cushions and kick the tires. A heartfelt thank you goes out to Pat & Lorie! Thanks, guys!

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Well folks, here it is: "The Project."

Sorry this was such a long time in coming, but I hope you can now see why! I also hope it was worth it. This was a ton of work, initially undertaken at a time of year when I just could not afford to put forth the required time and effort to get it all together, so I had to shelve it for awhile.

Shortly after the 2004 election cycle ended and the make-up of the new Congress was decided, I began to ponder a meaningful way to rate the various Senators and House Members. After searching for information about the voting records of the various members of Congress over the years, I found what seemed to me to be the three most cited sources for rating them: One on the right - The American Conservatives Union; one on the left - Americans for Democratic Action; and one independent - The National Journal. I next came up with a mathematical formula that combined the three into what I felt was a fair and accurate measure of a given politician's voting record.

The formula I used for computing the scores was as follows:

American Conservatives Union (ACU) Lifetime Rating [thru 2003] {see here}
[Note: It has since been updated to include 2004!]

+ National Journal Composite Conservative (NJCC) Score [2003 only] {see here; via Project Vote Smart}

- Americans for Democratic Action (ADA) Rating [2003 only] {see here and here}

Or, to express it more simply: (ACU + NJCC) - ADA = RPI*
[*the Right Place Index]

The higher the score, the more conservative a given member of Congress is.

The lower the score, the more liberal a given member of Congress is.

Large negative numbers are bad. Very bad. If a Senator or Representative should register a -70 or below on the scale (which means averaging 10/10/90 (ACU/NJCC/ADA) or worse), I would feel quite confident in labeling them as being on the left-wing fringe. Even -40 or below (averaging 20/20/80 or worse) is pretty far out there.

Democrats who are close to a 0 RPI (35/35/70) can actually be considered to be quite reasonable much of the time and are not to be disregarded as completely partisan liberal hacks. True moderates of either party would, by definition, be somewhere in the general area of a 50 RPI (50/50/50).

Any Republican managing a 110 or better (70/70/30) gets at least a passing grade as far as I am concerned, but let us be very careful about condemning those with lower grades. A moderate Republican is far, far better for the country than any liberal Democrat who might replace them if we on the right deign to punish them by sitting out an election to "teach them a lesson."

Furthermore, 140 and up (80/80/20) generally makes one a true conservative. Anyone with a 170 or higher (90/90/10) rates as a solid conservative on practically every issue.

The 2003 figures are, admittedly, a bit dated, but the 2004 figures were not yet posted by the groups who evaluate the voting records when I began, and most are still unpublished. I will update my index sometime in the future when fresher data is fully available. For this reason, newer members of Congress, who won special elections to fill vacancies in 2004, have not yet compiled a score on the Index. Naturally, members seated for the first time in the most recent election also have no score. There are also several former members who returned to Congress after an absence of at least one election cycle that I have not yet been able to find sufficient data to compile a score for either. These individuals are, therefore, unrated for the time being.

State composite RPIs were computed by adding together the RPIs of every member of Congress for whom they were available from that state and dividing by the total number of available RPIs. For this reason, state RPIs will fluctuate quite a bit in the future if the delegation has several unrated members who tend to be more from one party than another

A word on the sources:

As much work as I put into this little project, these are the folks who deserve the real credit for tracking the voting records and compiling the original scores.

  • The ACU
  • A conservative lobbying group who keeps tabs on all of the members of Congress and how they vote on key issues of import to conservatives.

  • The National Journal
  • A well-regarded independent political journal which rates members of Congress with both a composite conservative score and a mirror-image (thus unnecessary here for my purposes) composite liberal score. This should be considered the most objective measure of the three.

  • The ADA
  • A left-wing lobbying organization that also grades members of Congress based on how they vote on certain issues important to them - i.e., if they tend to vote what I would consider to be the wrong way on most issues, they score highly and if they tend to vote what I would consider to be the right way, they score poorly. (Hence the subtraction, I do not like to see anyone scored highly by this bunch!)

    So, just how do YOUR Senators and Representative rate? Are they true conservatives, moderates or left-wing extremists masquerading as middle-of-the road Democrats (as many of them all-too-often do back home come election time to survive)? I submit the following and ask you to be the judge...


    STATE (State Composite RPI)

    RPI (ACU Lifetime/NJCC 2003/ADA 2003) Congressman (Party) District

    [Note: Senate seats are followed by the year of the next election cycle in which they will be contested.]


    ALABAMA (130.78)

    185 (98/87/0) Jeff Sessions (R) AL Sen 2008
    177 (93/94/10) Spencer Bachus (R) AL-06
    171 (88/88/5) Jo Bonner (R) AL-01
    165 (95/80/10) Terry Everett (R) AL-02
    164 (90/84/10) Robert Aderholt (R) AL-04
    162 (84/83/5) Mike Rogers (R) AL-03
    130 (73/67/10) Richard Shelby (R) AL Sen 2010
    51 (48/48/45) Bud Cramer (D) AL-05
    -28 (28/34/90) Artur Davis (D) AL-07

    ALASKA (124.33)

    148 (76/77/5) Don Young (R) AK-at large
    119 (63/66/10) Ted Stevens (R) AK Sen 2008
    106 (70/56/20) Lisa Murkowski (R) AK Sen 2010

    ARIZONA (102.80)

    170 (97/78/5) J.D. Hayworth (R) AZ-05
    168 (97/81/10) Jon Kyl (R) AZ Sen 2006
    166 (88/88/10) Trent Franks (R) AZ-02
    152 (97/75/20) John Shadegg (R) AZ-03
    151 (84/77/10) Rick Renzi (R) AZ-01
    124 (93/56/25) Jeff Flake (R) AZ-06
    122 (75/62/15) Jim Kolbe (R) AZ-08
    111 (84/62/35) John McCain (R) AZ Sen 2010
    -55 (3/22/80) Ed Pastor (D) AZ-04
    -81 (12/7/100) Raul Grijalva (D) AZ-07

    ARKANSAS (16.33)

    161 (90/81/10) John Boozman (R) AR-03
    0 (30/40/70) Mark Pryor (D) AR Sen 2008
    -5 (37/38/80) Mike Ross (D) AR-04
    -8 (40/37/85) Marion Berry (D) AR-01
    -12 (22/41/75) Blanche Lincoln (D) AR Sen 2010
    -38 (12/35/85) Vic Snyder (D) AR-02

    CALIFORNIA (15.31)

    180 (97/88/5) Christopher Cox (R) CA-48
    180 (95/90/5) Gary Miller (R) CA-42
    179 (96/88/5) Wally Herger (R) CA-02
    176 (97/84/5) Richard Pombo (R) CA-11
    176 (95/86/5) Duke Cunningham (R) CA-50
    173 (95/83/5) John Doolittle (R) CA-04
    171 (94/82/5) George Radanovich (R) CA-19
    170 (91/84/5) Ken Calvert (R) CA-44
    167 (88/84/5) Devin Nunes (R) CA-21
    163 (92/81/10) Duncan Hunter (R) CA-52
    161 (90/76/5) Darrell Issa (R) CA-49
    161 (88/78/5) Elton Gallegly (R) CA-24
    160 (98/72/10) Ed Royce (R) CA-40
    157 (91/76/10) Buck McKeon (R) CA-25
    153 (92/66/5) David Dreier (R) CA-26
    151 (82/74/5) Jerry Lewis (R) CA-41
    144 (80/69/5) Bill Thomas (R) CA-22
    142 (95/62/15) Dana Rohrabacher (R) CA-46
    122 (75/57/10) Mary Bono (R) CA-45
    -1 (40/39/80) Dennis Cardoza (D) CA-18
    -17 (38/30/85) Jane Harman (D) CA-36
    -33 (20/32/85) Joe Baca (D) CA-43
    -46 (8/26/80) Tom Lantos (D) CA-12
    -47 (12/31/90) Ellen Tauscher (D) CA-10
    -47 (11/32/90) Dianne Feinstein (D) CA Sen 2006
    -50 (12/28/90) Mike Thompson (D) CA-01
    -54 (11/25/90) Loretta Sanchez (D) CA-47
    -62 (5/18/85) Juanita Millender-McDonald (D) CA-37
    -63 (4/23/90) Susan Davis (D) CA-53
    -64 (6/15/85) Howard Berman (D) CA-28
    -65 (12/23/100) Adam Schiff (D) CA-29
    -68 (8/14/90) Brad Sherman (D) CA-27
    -68 (5/12/85) Zoe Lofgren (D) CA-16
    -71 (5/14/90) Anna Eshoo (D) CA-14
    -72 (13/15/100) Lois Capps (D) CA-23
    -80 (4/11/95) Xavier Becerra (D) CA-31
    -82 (12/6/100) Linda Sanchez (D) CA-39
    -82 (5/8/95) Henry Waxman (D) CA-30
    -83 (5/7/95) Mike Honda (D) CA-15
    -83 (4/8/95) Sam Farr (D) CA-17
    -83 (4/8/95) Grace Napolitano (D) CA-38
    -84 (7/9/100) Diane Watson (D) CA-33
    -84 (2/14/100) Nancy Pelosi (D) CA-08
    -84 (2/9/95) Barbara Boxer (D) CA Sen 2010
    -86 (5/9/100) Pete Stark (D) CA-13
    -87 (5/8/100) Barbara Lee (D) CA-09
    -88 (4/8/100) Lynn Woolsey (D) CA-06
    -90 (3/7/100) Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) CA-34
    -91 (5/4/100) George Miller (D) CA-07
    -91 (5/4/100) Hilda Solis (D) CA-32
    -92 (4/4/100) Bob Filner (D) CA-51
    -92 (4/4/100) Maxine Waters (D) CA-35

    Unrated:
    Jim Costa* (D) CA-20
    Daniel Lungren** (R) CA-03

    Vacant Seat:
    CA-05 [Vacant due to the recent death of Rep. Robert Matsui (D)]

    COLORADO (90.43)

    162 (96/81/15) Marilyn Musgrave (R) CO-04
    158 (84/79/5) Bob Beauprez (R) CO-07
    156 (94/72/10) Wayne Allard (R) CO Sen 2008
    146 (96/60/10) Joel Hefley (R) CO-05
    130 (97/58/25) Tom Tancredo (R) CO-06
    -53 (8/19/80) Mark Udall (D) CO-02
    -66 (6/18/90) Diana DeGette (D) CO-01

    Unrated:
    John Salazar* (D) CO-03
    Ken Salazar* (D) CO Sen 2010

    CONNECTICUT (-3.86)

    87 (59/48/20) Rob Simmons (R) CT-02
    64 (48/46/30) Christopher Shays (R) CT-04
    61 (47/49/35) Nancy Johnson (R) CT-05
    -22 (19/29/70) Joseph Lieberman (D) CT Sen 2006
    -63 (8/24/95) Christopher Dodd (D) CT Sen 2010
    -74 (8/18/100) John Larson (D) CT-01
    -80 (5/15/100) Rosa DeLauro (D) CT-03

    DELAWARE (5.00)

    66 (59/47/40) Michael Castle (R) DE-at large
    -15 (19/41/75) Thomas Carper (D) DE Sen 2006
    -36 (14/25/75) Joseph Biden (D) DE Sen 2008

    FLORIDA (97.63)

    181 (94/92/5) Ric Keller (R) FL-08
    174 (92/87/5) Ander Crenshaw (R) FL-04
    171 (88/88/5) Mario Diaz-Balart (R) FL-25
    170 (93/87/10) John Mica (R) FL-07
    169 (94/80/5) Dave Weldon (R) FL-15
    163 (91/77/5) Adam Putnam (R) FL-12
    162 (84/83/5) Katherine Harris (R) FL-13
    161 (96/75/10) Tom Feeney (R) FL-24
    155 (96/74/15) Jeff Miller (R) FL-01
    155 (95/65/5) Cliff Stearns (R) FL-06
    153 (89/74/10) Bill Young (R) FL-10
    151 (83/78/10) Virginia Brown-Waite (R) FL-05
    149 (86/68/5) Michael Bilirakis (R) FL-09
    143 (76/72/5) Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) FL-18
    138 (82/66/10) Clay Shaw (R) FL-22
    137 (80/62/5) Mark Foley (R) FL-16
    136 (73/73/10) Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) FL-21
    7 (35/42/70) Allen Boyd (D) FL-02
    -33 (19/33/85) Jim Davis (D) FL-11
    -34 (17/29/80) Bill Nelson (D) FL Sen 2006
    -50 (8/27/85) Kendrick Meek (D) FL-17
    -66 (9/20/95) Corrine Brown (D) FL-03
    -67 (10/18/95) Robert Wexler (D) FL-19
    -82 (6/12/100) Alcee Hastings (D) FL-23

    Unrated:
    Connie Mack* (R) FL-14
    Mel Martinez* (R) FL Sen 2010
    Debbie Wasserman Schultz* (D) FL-20

    GEORGIA (98.82)

    183 (94/94/5) John Linder (R) GA-07
    172 (84/93/5) Phil Gingrey (R) GA-11
    170 (97/83/10) Jack Kingston (R) GA-01
    170 (86/89/5) Nathan Deal (R) GA-10
    164 (94/75/5) Saxby Chambliss (R) GA Sen 2008
    163 (96/77/10) Charlie Norwood (R) GA-09
    158 (84/79/5) Johnny Isakson*** (R) GA Sen 2010
    -1 (24/45/70) Jim Marshall (D) GA-03
    -4 (32/39/75) David Scott (D) GA-13
    -5 (33/37/75) Sanford Bishop (D) GA-02
    -83 (3/4/90) John Lewis (D) GA-05

    Unrated:
    John Barrow* (D) GA-12
    Cynthia McKinney** (D) GA-04
    Tom Price* (R) GA-06
    Lynn Westmoreland* (R) GA-08

    HAWAII (-51.75)

    -36 (28/31/95) Ed Case (D) HI-02
    -43 (7/35/85) Daniel Inouye (D) HI Sen 2010
    -60 (8/22/90) Daniel Akaka (D) HI Sen 2006
    -68 (8/19/95) Neil Abercrombie (D) HI-01

    IDAHO (153.25)

    164 (93/76/5) Larry Craig (R) ID Sen 2008
    164 (93/76/5) Michael Crapo (R) ID Sen 2010
    149 (90/69/10) Mike Simpson (R) ID-02
    136 (94/62/20) Butch Otter (R) ID-01

    ILLINOIS (34.72)

    178 (92/96/10) Denny Hastert (R) IL-14
    168 (86/87/5) Jerry Weller (R) IL-11
    166 (85/91/10) Henry Hyde (R) IL-06
    159 (96/73/10) Donald Manzullo (R) IL-16
    142 (88/64/10) John Shimkus (R) IL-19
    118 (70/58/10) Judy Biggert (R) IL-13
    116 (74/57/15) Ray Lahood (R) IL-18
    107 (67/50/10) Mark Kirk (R) IL-10
    90 (71/49/30) Timothy Johnson (R) IL-15
    -6 (34/40/80) Jerry Costello (D) IL-12
    -54 (16/25/95) Rahm Emanuel (D) IL-05
    -72 (4/19/95) Lane Evans (D) IL-17
    -74 (7/9/90) Luis Gutierrez (D) IL-04
    -75 (7/13/95) Dick Durbin (D) IL Sen 2008
    -76 (4/15/95) Bobby Rush (D) IL-01
    -81 (11/8/100) Danny Davis (D) IL-07
    -89 (5/6/100) Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D) IL-02
    -92 (4/4/100) Jan Schakowsky (D) IL-09

    Unrated:
    Melissa Bean* (D) IL-08
    Daniel Lipinski* (D) IL-03
    Barack Obama* (D) IL Sen 2010

    INDIANA (94.00)

    174 (88/91/5) Chris Chocola (R) IN-02
    169 (99/80/10) Mike Pence (R) IN-06
    165 (91/79/5) Mark Souder (R) IN-03
    156 (79/87/10) Richard Lugar (R) IN Sen 2006
    153 (92/71/10) Steve Buyer (R) IN-04
    143 (97/66/20) Dan Burton (R) IN-05
    109 (88/56/35) John Hostettler (R) IN-08
    -11 (22/42/75) Evan Bayh (D) IN Sen 2010
    -45 (12/28/85) Peter Visclosky (D) IN-01
    -73 (4/18/95) Julia Carson (D) IN-07

    Unrated:
    Michael Sodrel* (R) IN-09

    IOWA (81.57)

    164 (82/87/5) Chuck Grassley (R) IA Sen 2010
    162 (88/84/10) Steve King (R) IA-05
    152 (88/69/5) Tom Latham (R) IA-04
    142 (86/71/15) Jim Nussle (R) IA-01
    38 (44/44/50) Jim Leach (R) IA-02
    -12 (31/37/80) Leonard Boswell (D) IA-03
    -75 (9/11/95) Tom Harkin (D) IA Sen 2008

    KANSAS (125.17)

    186 (97/94/5) Todd Tiahrt (R) KS-04
    168 (98/85/15) Jim Ryun (R) KS-02
    162 (95/72/5) Sam Brownback (R) KS Sen 2010
    146 (87/74/15) Pat Roberts (R) KS Sen 2008
    122 (92/55/25) Jerry Moran (R) KS-01
    -33 (22/35/90) Dennis Moore (D) KS-03

    KENTUCKY (160.83)

    172 (95/87/10) Jim Bunning (R) KY Sen 2010
    166 (89/87/10) Mitch McConnell (R) KY Sen 2008
    161 (85/86/10) Anne Northrup (R) KY-03
    160 (84/81/5) Harold Rogers (R) KY-05
    158 (94/79/15) Ron Lewis (R) KY-02
    148 (91/67/10) Ed Whitfield (R) KY-01

    Unrated:
    Ben Chandler** (D) KY-06
    Geoff Davis* (R) KY-04

    LOUISIANA (80.83)

    172 (91/86/5) Richard Baker (R) LA-06
    170 (93/87/10) David Vitter*** (R) LA Sen 2010
    165 (89/81/5) Jim McCrery (R) LA-04
    34 (48/46/60) Rodney Alexander**** (R) LA-05
    -6 (15/39/60) Mary Landrieu (D) LA Sen 2008
    -50 (13/27/90) William Jefferson (D) LA-02

    Unrated:
    Charles Boustany* (R) LA-07
    Bobby Jindal* (R) LA-01
    Charlie Melancon* (D) LA-03

    MAINE (2.00)

    60 (56/49/45) Susan Collins (R) ME Sen 2008
    46 (51/50/55) Olympia Snowe (R) ME Sen 2006
    -24 (40/31/95) Michael Michaud (D) ME-02
    -74 (4/17/95) Tom Allen (D) ME-01

    MARYLAND (-22.30)

    143 (96/67/20) Roscoe Bartlett (R) MD-06
    91 (64/52/25) Wayne Gilchrest (R) MD-01
    -30 (24/36/90) Dutch Ruppersberger (D) MD-02
    -51 (8/31/90) Steny Hoyer (D) MD-05
    -59 (7/24/90) Albert Wynn (D) MD-04
    -60 (6/24/90) Benjamin Cardin (D) MD-03
    -61 (16/18/95) Chris Van Hollen (D) MD-08
    -67 (5/18/90) Elijah Cummings (D) MD-07
    -69 (7/14/90) Barbara Mikulski (D) MD Sen 2010
    -90 (5/5/100) Paul Sarbanes (D) MD Sen 2006

    MASSACHUSETTS (-78.25)

    -34 (23/28/85) Stephen Lynch (D) MA-09
    -62 (10/23/95) Richard Neal (D) MA-02
    -76 (5/4/85) John Kerry (D) MA Sen 2008
    -77 (11/12/100) Marty Meehan (D) MA-05
    -80 (6/14/100) Michael Capuano (D) MA-08
    -80 (3/12/95) Ted Kennedy (D) MA Sen 2006
    -84 (5/6/95) William Delahunt (D) MA-10
    -87 (5/8/100) John Tierney (D) MA-06
    -87 (4/9/100) James McGovern (D) MA-03
    -89 (6/5/100) Ed Markey (D) MA-07
    -90 (5/5/100) Barney Frank (D) MA-04
    -93 (3/4/100) John Olver (D) MA-01

    MICHIGAN (43.44)

    169 (88/86/5) Mike Rogers (R) MI-08
    165 (89/81/5) Joseph Knollenberg (R) MI-09
    162 (89/78/5) Dave Camp (R) MI-04
    154 (89/75/10) Pete Hoekstra (R) MI-02
    151 (83/78/10) Candice Miller (R) MI-10
    148 (88/70/10) Thaddeus McCotter (R) MI-11
    120 (74/56/10) Fred Upton (R) MI-06
    111 (71/55/15) Vernon Ehlers (R) MI-03
    -27 (23/35/85) Bart Stupak (D) MI-01
    -46 (13/26/85) John Dingell (D) MI-15
    -46 (12/32/90) Dale Kildee (D) MI-05
    -62 (4/24/90) Sander Levin (D) MI-12
    -63 (12/20/95) Debbie Stabenow (D) MI Sen 2006
    -77 (5/8/90) John Conyers (D) MI-14
    -82 (7/11/100) Carl Levin (D) MI Sen 2008
    -82 (6/12/100) Carolyn Kilpatrick (D) MI-13

    Unrated:
    Joe Schwarz* (R) MI-07

    MINNESOTA (49.20)

    176 (90/91/5) Mark Kennedy (R) MN-06
    167 (84/88/5) John Kline (R) MN-02
    146 (94/67/15) Gil Gutknecht (R) MN-01
    146 (85/76/15) Norm Coleman (R) MN Sen 2008
    95 (69/51/25) Jim Ramstad (R) MN-03
    22 (45/47/70) Collin Peterson (D) MN-07
    -51 (10/24/85) James Oberstar (D) MN-08
    -54 (9/12/75) Mark Dayton (D) MN Sen 2006
    -70 (5/20/95) Martin Olav Sabo (D) MN-05
    -85 (7/8/100) Betty McCollum (D) MN-04

    MISSISSIPPI (105.83)

    162 (95/72/5) Chip Pickering (R) MS-03
    162 (80/87/5) Thad Cochran (R) MS Sen 2008
    161 (92/79/10) Trent Lott (R) MS Sen 2006
    158 (91/77/10) Roger Wicker (R) MS-01
    53 (70/48/65) Gene Taylor (D) MS-04
    -61 (10/19/90) Bennie Thompson (D) MS-02

    MISSOURI (118.67)

    178 (93/90/5) Roy Blunt (R) MO-07
    168 (95/78/5) Todd Akin (R) MO-02
    161 (94/72/5) James Talent (R) MO Sen 2006
    158 (91/72/5) Kenny Hulshof (R) MO-09
    158 (82/81/5) Kit Bond (R) MO Sen 2010
    157 (92/70/5) Sam Graves (R) MO-06
    147 (89/68/10) Jo Ann Emerson (R) MO-08
    16 (49/47/80) Ike Skelton (D) MO-04
    -75 (9/11/95) William "Lacy" Clay (D) MO-01

    Unrated:
    Russ Carnahan* (D) MO-03
    Emanuel Cleaver* (D) MO-05

    MONTANA (94.00)

    166 (89/87/10) Conrad Burns (R) MT Sen 2006
    158 (91/77/10) Dennis Rehberg (R) MT-at large
    -42 (13/30/85) Max Baucus (D) MT Sen 2008

    NEBRASKA (121.00)

    153 (88/70/5) Lee Terry (R) NE-02
    142 (85/72/15) Chuck Hagel (R) NE Sen 2008
    133 (80/68/15) Tom Osborne (R) NE-03
    56 (51/50/45) Ben Nelson (D) NE Sen 2006

    Unrated:
    Jeff Fortenberry* (R) NE-01

    NEVADA (83.20)

    166 (90/81/5) Jim Gibbons (R) NV-02
    159 (88/76/5) Jon Porter (R) NV-03
    154 (93/71/10) John Ensign (R) NV Sen 2006
    -26 (21/23/70) Harry Reid (D) NV Sen 2010
    -37 (18/30/85) Shelley Berkley (D) NV-01

    NEW HAMPSHIRE (127.25)

    139 (94/60/15) John Sununu (R) NH Sen 2008
    138 (79/74/15) Judd Gregg (R) NH Sen 2010
    123 (72/61/10) Jeb Bradley (R) NH-01
    109 (74/55/20) Charles Bass (R) NH-02

    NEW JERSEY (14.87)

    158 (96/77/15) Scott Garrett (R) NJ-05
    139 (77/62/0) Michael Ferguson (R) NJ-07
    115 (72/63/20) Jim Saxton (R) NJ-03
    111 (63/58/10) Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) NJ-11
    99 (72/52/25) Frank LoBiondo (R) NJ-02
    87 (62/55/30) Chris Smith (R) NJ-04
    -29 (20/31/80) Bill Pascrell (D) NJ-08
    -29 (20/26/75) Robert Andrews (D) NJ-01
    -34 (13/33/80) Steven Rothman (D) NJ-09
    -51 (11/28/90) Bob Menendez (D) NJ-13
    -56 (16/23/95) Frank Pallone (D) NJ-06
    -69 (5/16/90) Jon Corzine (D) NJ Sen 2006
    -69 (4/7/80) Donald Payne (D) NJ-10
    -71 (8/16/95) Rush Holt (D) NJ-12
    -78 (6/11/95) Frank Lautenberg (D) NJ Sen 2008

    NEW MEXICO (60.00)

    169 (88/86/5) Steve Pearce (R) NM-02
    148 (73/80/5) Pete Domenici (R) NM Sen 2008
    121 (82/59/20) Heather Wilson (R) NM-01
    -52 (13/30/95) Jeff Bingaman (D) NM Sen 2006
    -86 (5/9/100) Tom Udall (D) NM-03

    NEW YORK (-15.24)

    161 (87/79/5) Thomas Reynolds (R) NY-26
    137 (88/64/15) Vito Fossella (R) NY-13
    132 (67/70/5) Jim Walsh (R) NY-25
    126 (77/64/15) Pete King (R) NY-03
    124 (78/66/20) John Sweeney (R) NY-20
    103 (65/53/15) Sue Kelly (R) NY-19
    94 (75/54/35) John McHugh (R) NY-23
    63 (39/49/25) Sherwood Boehlert (R) NY-24
    -31 (25/34/90) Steve Israel (D) NY-02
    -34 (23/28/85) Carolyn McCarthy (D) NY-04
    -41 (22/27/90) Michael McNulty (D) NY-21
    -48 (15/32/95) Joseph Crowley (D) NY-07
    -51 (16/23/90) Timothy Bishop (D) NY-01
    -60 (4/16/80) Edolphus Towns (D) NY-10
    -63 (6/26/95) Chuck Schumer (D) NY Sen 2010
    -64 (5/26/95) Nita Lowey (D) NY-18
    -67 (9/19/95) Eliot Engel (D) NY-17
    -68 (7/20/95) Gregory Meeks (D) NY-06
    -68 (5/22/95) Gary Ackerman (D) NY-05
    -71 (4/10/85) Charles Rangel (D) NY-15
    -73 (11/11/95) Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) NY Sen 2006
    -73 (6/16/95) Carolyn Maloney (D) NY-14
    -73 (4/13/90) Nydia Velazquez (D) NY-12
    -75 (8/17/100) Anthony Weiner (D) NY-09
    -79 (3/8/90) Jose Serrano (D) NY-16
    -83 (6/11/100) Louise Slaughter (D) NY-28
    -83 (5/7/95) Maurice Hinchey (D) NY-22
    -85 (3/12/100) Major Owens (D) NY-11
    -92 (4/4/100) Jerrold Nadler (D) NY-08

    Unrated:
    Brian Higgins* (D) NY-27
    Randy Kuhl* (R) NY-29

    NORTH CAROLINA (72.00)

    174 (94/90/10) Sue Myrick (R) NC-09
    168 (90/83/5) Robin Hayes (R) NC-08
    154 (90/69/5) Howard Coble (R) NC-06
    153 (92/76/15) Charles Taylor (R) NC-11
    146 (91/70/15) Richard Burr*** (R) NC Sen 2010
    137 (80/72/15) Elizabeth Dole (R) NC Sen 2008
    130 (97/58/25) Walter Jones (R) NC-03
    26 (52/44/70) Mike McIntyre (D) NC-07
    -27 (29/34/90) Bob Etheridge (D) NC-02
    -51 (10/29/90) David Price (D) NC-04
    -57 (12/26/95) Brad Miller (D) NC-13
    -89 (5/6/100) Mel Watt (D) NC-12

    Unrated:
    G.K. Butterfield***** (D) NC-01
    Virginia Foxx* (R) NC-05
    Patrick McHenry* (R) NC-10

    NORTH DAKOTA (-16.00)

    2 (23/44/65) Earl Pomeroy (D) ND-at large
    -20 (20/40/80) Kent Conrad (D) ND Sen 2006
    -30 (17/33/80) Byron Dorgan (D) ND Sen 2010

    OHIO (85.20)

    175 (93/87/5) John Boehner (R) OH-08
    161 (92/74/5) Pat Tiberi (R) OH-12
    160 (88/77/5) Michael Turner (R) OH-03
    157 (87/70/0) Michael Oxley (R) OH-04
    156 (98/68/10) Steve Chabot (R) OH-01
    155 (81/79/5) Paul Gillmor (R) OH-05
    154 (89/70/5) Rob Portman (R) OH-02
    146 (77/69/0) Deborah Pryce (R) OH-15
    143 (81/67/5) David Hobson (R) OH-07
    139 (84/65/10) Robert Ney (R) OH-18
    138 (82/71/15) Mike DeWine (R) OH Sen 2006
    136 (68/73/5) Ralph Regula (R) OH-16
    134 (79/70/15) George Voinovich (R) OH Sen 2010
    102 (72/55/25) Steven LaTourette (R) OH-14
    -41 (32/22/95) Tim Ryan (D) OH-17
    -47 (19/29/95) Ted Strickland (D) OH-06
    -54 (16/25/95) Marcy Kaptur (D) OH-09
    -55 (15/20/90) Dennis Kucinich (D) OH-10
    -75 (4/11/90) Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D) OH-11
    -80 (9/11/100) Sherrod Brown (D) OH-13

    OKLAHOMA (166.80)

    177 (88/89/0) John Sullivan (R) OK-01
    167 (97/75/5) James Inhofe (R) OK Sen 2008
    166 (84/87/5) Tom Cole (R) OK-04
    163 (95/78/10) Frank Lucas (R) OK-03
    161 (94/77/10) Ernest Istook (R) OK-05

    Unrated:
    Dan Boren* (D) OK-02
    Tom Coburn** (R) OK Sen 2010

    OREGON (-8.14)

    133 (86/62/15) Greg Walden (R) OR-02
    118 (77/61/20) Gordon Smith (R) OR Sen 2008
    -45 (14/31/90) David Wu (D) OR-01
    -50 (13/32/95) Darlene Hooley (D) OR-05
    -64 (10/16/90) Ron Wyden (D) OR Sen 2010
    -71 (14/15/100) Peter DeFazio (D) OR-04
    -78 (5/17/100) Earl Blumenauer (D) OR-03

    PENNSYLVANIA (82.67)

    177 (96/86/5) Joseph Pitts (R) PA-16
    164 (87/87/10) Rick Santorum (R) PA Sen 2006
    162 (90/77/5) Melissa Hart (R) PA-04
    161 (92/79/10) John Peterson (R) PA-05
    160 (88/82/10) Tim Murphy (R) PA-18
    153 (86/77/10) Don Sherwood (R) PA-10
    152 (92/70/10) Bill Shuster (R) PA-09
    126 (72/59/5) Jim Gerlach (R) PA-06
    123 (70/58/5) Curt Weldon (R) PA-07
    121 (76/65/20) Phil English (R) PA-03
    120 (82/58/20) Todd Platts (R) PA-19
    68 (43/50/25) Arlen Specter (R) PA Sen 2010
    16 (42/44/70) Tim Holden (D) PA-17
    -7 (33/45/85) John Murtha (D) PA-12
    -27 (26/32/85) Mike Doyle (D) PA-14
    -28 (21/36/85) Paul Kanjorski (D) PA-11
    -71 (10/19/100) Robert Brady (D) PA-01
    -82 (3/10/95) Chaka Fattah (D) PA-02

    Unrated:
    Charles Dent* (R) PA-15
    Michael Fitzpatrick* (R) PA-08
    Allyson Schwartz* (D) PA-13

    RHODE ISLAND (-41.25)

    26 (44/47/65) Lincoln Chafee (R) RI Sen 2006
    -43 (17/25/85) Jim Langevin (D) RI-02
    -62 (13/20/95) Patrick Kennedy (D) RI-01
    -86 (9/5/100) Jack Reed (D) RI Sen 2008

    SOUTH CAROLINA (98.14)

    170 (92/88/10) Henry Brown (R) SC-01
    164 (88/81/5) Joe Wilson (R) SC-02
    157 (92/75/10) J. Gresham Barrett (R) SC-03
    153 (97/76/20) Jim DeMint*** (R) SC Sen 2010
    142 (91/66/15) Lindsey Graham (R) SC Sen 2008
    -39 (26/30/95) John Spratt (D) SC-05
    -60 (11/19/90) James Clyburn (D) SC-06

    Unrated:
    Bob Inglis** (R) SC-04

    SOUTH DAKOTA (-40.00)

    -40 (21/19/80) Tim Johnson (D) SD Sen 2008

    Unrated:
    Stephanie Herseth***** (D) SD-at large
    John Thune** (R) SD Sen 2010

    TENNESSEE (83.18)

    176 (88/93/5) Marsha Blackburn (R) TN-07
    165 (88/87/10) Bill Frist (R) TN Sen 2006
    158 (85/83/10) Lamar Alexander (R) TN Sen 2008
    152 (94/73/15) Zach Wamp (R) TN-03
    150 (93/67/10) William Jenkins (R) TN-01
    129 (87/57/15) John J. Duncan (R) TN-02
    32 (61/46/75) Lincoln Davis (D) TN-04
    -6 (36/38/80) Jim Cooper (D) TN-05
    -7 (43/40/90) John Tanner (D) TN-08
    -8 (28/39/75) Bart Gordon (D) TN-06
    -26 (20/34/80) Harold Ford (D) TN-09

    TEXAS (92.81)

    186 (98/93/5) Sam Johnson (R) TX-03
    185 (96/94/5) Tom DeLay (R) TX-22
    183 (97/91/5) Pete Sessions (R) TX-32
    179 (93/91/5) Lamar Smith (R) TX-21
    177 (94/93/10) Mac Thornberry (R) TX-13
    175 (94/86/5) Joe Barton (R) TX-06
    173 (88/90/5) John Carter (R) TX-31
    167 (95/82/10) Kevin Brady (R) TX-08
    167 (88/84/5) Jeb Hensarling (R) TX-05
    164 (88/81/5) Michael Burgess (R) TX-26
    162 (85/87/10) John Cornyn (R) TX Sen 2008
    161 (91/75/5) Henry Bonilla (R) TX-23
    156 (98/73/15) John Culberson (R) TX-07
    152 (86/71/5) Kay Granger (R) TX-12
    146 (91/65/10) Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R) TX Sen 2006
    144 (83/71/10) Randy Neugebauer (R) TX-19
    120 (82/53/15) Ralph Hall (R) TX-04
    64 (84/40/60) Ron Paul (R) TX-14
    -4 (33/43/80) Solomon Ortiz (D) TX-27
    -12 (28/40/80) Chet Edwards (D) TX-17
    -17 (26/37/80) Silvestre Reyes (D) TX-16
    -24 (20/36/80) Ruben Hinojosa (D) TX-15
    -27 (24/34/85) Gene Green (D) TX-29
    -60 (6/29/95) Charlie Gonzalez (D) TX-20
    -67 (8/15/90) Lloyd Doggett (D) TX-25
    -72 (7/16/95) Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) TX-30
    -72 (6/17/95) Sheila Jackson Lee (D) TX-18

    Unrated:
    Michael Conaway* (R) TX-11
    Henry Cuellar* (D) TX-28
    Louie Gohmert* (R) TX-01
    Al Green* (D) TX-09
    Kenny Marchant* (R) TX-24
    Michael McCaul* (R) TX-10
    Ted Poe* (R) TX-02

    UTAH (139.40)

    184 (96/93/5) Chris Cannon (R) UT-03
    179 (88/91/0) Rob Bishop (R) UT-01
    167 (90/87/10) Orrin Hatch (R) UT Sen 2006
    157 (86/81/10) Robert Bennett (R) UT Sen 2010
    10 (38/42/70) Jim Matheson (D) UT-02

    VERMONT (-53.33)

    -26 (26/33/85) James Jeffords (I) VT Sen 2006
    -57 (6/22/85) Patrick Leahy (D) VT Sen 2010
    -77 (7/16/100) Bernie Sanders (I) VT-at large

    VIRGINIA (100.00)

    180 (95/90/5) Eric Cantor (R) VA-07
    173 (91/87/5) George Allen (R) VA Sen 2006
    163 (95/78/10) Randy Forbes (R) VA-04
    160 (94/76/10) Bob Goodlatte (R) VA-06
    156 (91/75/10) Virgil Goode (R) VA-05
    145 (82/73/10) John Warner (R) VA Sen 2008
    141 (91/65/15) Jo Ann Davis (R) VA-01
    137 (82/70/15) Frank Wolf (R) VA-10
    124 (72/57/5) Tom Davis (R) VA-11
    -44 (15/31/90) Rick Boucher (D) VA-09
    -50 (16/29/95) Jim Moran (D) VA-08
    -85 (8/7/100) Bobby Scott (D) VA-03

    Unrated:
    Thelma Drake* (R) VA-02

    WASHINGTON (-30.44)

    165 (94/81/10) Doc Hastings (R) WA-04
    -30 (19/36/85) Adam Smith (D) WA-09
    -35 (25/35/95) Rick Larsen (D) WA-02
    -46 (11/33/90) Norman Dicks (D) WA-06
    -54 (13/23/90) Maria Cantwell (D) WA Sen 2006
    -59 (12/24/95) Brian Baird (D) WA-03
    -65 (12/23/100) Jay Inslee (D) WA-01
    -65 (3/22/90) Patty Murray (D) WA Sen 2010
    -85 (3/12/100) Jim McDermott (D) WA-07

    Unrated:
    Cathy McMorris* (R) WA-05
    David Reichert* (R) WA-08

    WEST VIRGINIA (-5.80)

    115 (73/57/15) Shelley Moore Capito (R) WV-02
    -5 (32/43/80) Alan Mollohan (D) WV-01
    -31 (20/34/85) Nick Rahall (D) WV-03
    -39 (31/25/95) Robert Byrd (D) WV Sen 2006
    -69 (10/21/100) Jay Rockefeller (D) WV Sen 2008

    WISCONSIN (20.44)

    143 (87/66/10) Mark Green (R) WI-08
    140 (91/69/20) Paul Ryan (R) WI-01
    122 (88/59/25) James Sensenbrenner (R) WI-05
    112 (76/56/20) Thomas Petri (R) WI-06
    -51 (14/30/95) Ron Kind (D) WI-03
    -56 (16/23/95) Herb Kohl (D) WI Sen 2006
    -68 (10/22/100) David Obey (D) WI-07
    -72 (12/11/95) Russell Feingold (D) WI Sen 2010
    -86 (4/10/100) Tammy Baldwin (D) WI-02

    Unrated:
    Gwen Moore* (D) WI-04

    WYOMING (171.67)

    178 (97/86/5) Barbara Cubin (R) WY-at large
    175 (88/87/0) Craig Thomas (R) WY Sen 2006
    162 (90/77/5) Michael Enzi (R) WY Sen 2008


    *Newly elected. No voting record data yet available.

    **Previous member of Congress returning after absence of one or more election cycles. Insufficient data to compile a score.

    ***Newly elected to Senate - scores given were compiled as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives.

    ****Recently switched party affiliation from Democrat to Republican.

    *****First elected to the House in 2004 special mid-term election to fill a vacancy. Insufficient data to compile a score.


    State-by-State Analysis:

    And now for my $.02...

    Rank) STATE (Composite RPI)
    # of GOP Senators: # of Dem Senators, # of GOP Representatives: #of Dem Representatives


    1) WYOMING (171.67)
    2:0, 1:0

    Solidly conservative state. No changes in the offing.

    2) OKLAHOMA (166.80)
    2:0, 4:1

    Solidly conservative state. RPI will drop somewhat once only Democrat, newly elected Rep. Dan Boren, starts figuring in.

    3) KENTUCKY (160.83)
    2:0, 5:1

    Solidly conservative state. RPI will drop somewhat once only Democrat, Rep. Ben Chandler, who returns to Congress after a brief absence, starts figuring in.

    4) IDAHO (153.25)
    2:0, 2:0

    Solidly conservative state. Just re-elected GOP Sen. Michael Crapo (164) recently announced he will undergo further treatment for a recurrence of prostate cancer, but his prognosis is said to be "excellent."

    5) UTAH (139.40)
    2:0, 2:1

    Solidly conservative state. Only Democrat, Rep. Jim Matheson (10), is, perhaps by necessity, something of a moderate.

    6) ALABAMA (130.78)
    2:0, 5:2

    Solidly conservative state. Two Democrats in the House. One, Rep. Bud Cramer (51), is a moderate to say the least, and could easily be called a "DINO" (Democrat in name only).

    7) NEW HAMPSHIRE (127.25)
    2:0, 2:0

    Reddest state to vote for MA Sen. John Kerry in the last Presidential Election. Long-term trend may turn it more blue, as Democrats from elsewhere in the Northeast continue to migrate here - many of them, ironically enough, to escape the higher taxes in other Northeastern states imposed by the very liberal Democrats they themselves helped to vote into office! This makes them similar to a swarm of locusts in many respects. Will they never learn?

    8) KANSAS (125.17)
    2:0, 3:1

    Solidly conservative state. RPI dragged down a bit by lone Democrat, Rep. Dennis Moore (-33).

    9) ALASKA (124.33)
    2:0, 1:0

    Solidly conservative state, but Congressional delegation is surprisingly uninspiring for an all-Republican group.

    10) NEBRASKA (121.00)
    1:1, 3:0

    Solidly conservative state. RPI likely to go up slightly once newly elected GOP Rep. Jeff Fortenberry is figured in. Only Democrat, Sen. Ben Nelson (56), is a true moderate (many would even say a "DINO") but it may not be enough to keep him seated in the Senate past the next election cycle (2006) in one of the reddest states there is IF he faces a serious GOP challenger. Could a party switch be in the cards? Don't count on it, but don't count it out either.

    11) MISSOURI (118.67)
    2:0, 5:4

    The quintessential "bellweather" state will see its RPI go down appreciably with two newly elected Democrats (Rep. Emanuel Cleaver & Rep. Russ Carnahan, who replaces retired House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt) not yet figured in. One of the two Democrats already figured into the number, Rep. Ike Skelton (16), is somewhat moderate.

    12) MISSISSIPPI (105.83)
    2:0, 2:2

    A conservative Southern state once owned by the Democrats, now features only two in its delegation and one of them, Rep. Gene Taylor (53), is solidly in the moderate/"DINO" category.

    13) ARIZONA (102.80)
    2:0, 6:2

    Despite how the media tried to portray AZ prior to the last election by calling it a "swing state," it remains solidly conservative. Maverick Republican Sen. John McCain (111), however, is no longer rating as a conservative after once being pretty solid.

    14) VIRGINIA (100.00)
    2:0, 8:3

    A fairly conservative state, but could Republican Sen. George Allen (173) face a stiff challenge in 2006 from popular but term-limited Democratic Gov. Mark Warner? Stay tuned...

    15) GEORGIA (98.82)
    2:0, 7:6

    Without metro Atlanta, this state, home of the nation's most famous disaffected DINO in former Senator Zell Miller, would glow an even brighter red! National disgrace, Democratic Rep. Cynthia McKinney, returns after a brief 2 year exile to drag the RPI down, but not by much. Two new Republicans (Rep. Tom Price & Rep. Lynn Westmoreland) should help balance out her and the other new Democrat, Rep. John Barrow. Overall RPI will be down from where it would have been last Congress, however, as Barrow unseated Republican Rep. Max Burns.

    16) SOUTH CAROLINA (98.14)
    2:0, 4:2

    Newly elected GOP Sen. Jim DeMint (153 while in the House) promises to be a huge upgrade over retired Democratic Sen. Ernest "Fritz" Hollings. RPI will rise once GOP Rep. Bob Inglis, returning from retirement to take over DeMint's House seat, gets factored in.

    17) FLORIDA (97.63)
    1:1, 18:7

    Don't look now, Dems, but it's trending redder! Ground zero for the 2000 Election fiasco has since thoroughly rejected crybaby Dems angry demands for retribution against all things Republican here, especially President George W. Bush and his brother, Gov. Jeb Bush. Republicans take over a Senate seat with Sen. Mel Martinez taking the place of retired Democratic Sen. Bob Graham. RPI will surely rise. Two new House Members are split: 1 Democrat, 1 Republican. One other Dem., Rep. Allen Boyd (7), is fairly reasonable. Next up: Will the popular but term-limited Governor Bush try to unseat Dem. Sen. Bill Nelson? Or perhaps his eyes are on the White House? For now, it's all just wait and see...

    18-tie) INDIANA (94.00)
    1:1, 7:2

    Reddest state in the midwest. The question here is, will normally reasonable Dem. Sen. Evan Bayh (-11), safely seated until 2010, now run to the left to try and secure a shot at the 2008 Presidential nomination from his leftist dominated party? He might, if recent confirmation vote against new Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is any indication. New GOP Rep. Michael Sodrel, who takes over a seat formerly in enemy hands, should still cause overall RPI to rise, however.

    18-tie) MONTANA (94.00)
    1:1, 1:0

    "One of these things is not like the others, one of these things just doesn't belong..." The old Sesame Street tune comes to mind when looking at Dem. Sen. Max Baucus (-42) sitting amidst the delegation from this deep red state. -42??? Will reliably conservative Montana wake up and ditch this clod when he is next up in 2008 now that he can be exposed by the blogosphere and other alternative media for the partisan liberal Democratic hack he is but pretends not to be back home (much like former SD Sen. Tom Daschle)! Let's hope so! Sheesh!!! The onus is on Republicans here to recruit a powerful challenger, but they have a while yet.

    20) TEXAS (92.81)
    2:0, 21:11

    Big changes in this Congressional class compared to the last one, as GOP picked up 4 formerly Democratic seats here thanks to redistricting. RPI will only go up slightly from what you see above, though, as 3 new Democrats cycle in from already Dem. districts and also are not yet figured in. Former Libertarian Presidential Candidate turned Republican Rep. Ron Paul (64) is an enigma, however. (A 60 from the ADA??? For a Texas Republican???) Can the Lone Star State break the 100 RPI mark in spite of him? Maybe...

    21) COLORADO (90.43)
    1:1, 4:3

    Oops. One of the few delegations with palpable Republican losses. RPI will drop, drop, drop. Dems take over a Senate seat (Democratic Sen. Ken Salazar replaces retired Dem. turned Republican Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell) and a House seat.

    22) OHIO (85.20)
    2:0, 12:6

    Republicans maintain firm control here except for certain places like Cleveland and Toledo. 118,000+ vote advantage for President Bush made the difference in this crucial state! Will popular GOP Sec. of State Ken Blackwell be the next Gov.? Only time will tell...

    23) NEVADA (83.20)
    1:1, 2:1

    Safe until 2010, look for new Senate Minority Leader Democrat Harry "I Grew Up in the Tiny Little Mining Town of Searchlight, Nevada" Reid (-26) to drop the whole state's RPI as he lurches farther left to lead obstructionist Democrats in more windmill tilting expeditions, taking over where poor little Tommy Daschle left off. They really don't get it, do they?

    24) TENNESSEE (83.18)
    2:0, 4:5

    Will get redder with time. Of all 5 Democrats here, none of them are totally unreasonable, ranging from Rep. Lincoln Davis (32), a true moderate, to the most level-headed member of the entire Black Congressional Caucus, Rep. Harold Ford (-26). GOP Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (165) is retiring in 2006 to concentrate on a White House bid for 2008. Gerry Daly has the latest dope on the early Senate match-up talk here, which has Rep. Ford likely running for the Dems against one of several GOP possibilities, including former Rep. Ed Bryant and former Gubernatorial candidate Van Hilleary. This could get interesting...

    25) PENNSYLVANIA (82.67)
    2:0, 12:7

    Highest ranking "blue" state this side of New Hampshire. RPI will rise slightly with 2 new Republicans and 1 new Democrat yet to be evaluated. Republican moderate Sen. Arlen Specter (68) (whose office just announced he is afflicted with Hodgkin's Disease, but also says the prognosis is good) is counterbalanced by Democrat moderate Tim Holden (16) and 3 more reasonable to somewhat reasonable Dems. State features only two real head cases: Rep. Robert Brady (-71) & Rep. Chaka Fattah (-82), which is quite surprising for a state with big cities like Philadelphia & Pittsburgh on either end. Look for a big Dem. challenge to GOP Sen. Rick Santorum (164) here in '06, perhaps even new State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr., the son of a popular late former Governor.

    26) IOWA (81.57)
    1:1, 4:1

    This swing state broke for Bush in the last election after going for Gore in 2000. Will head more into GOP column with Wisconsin & Minnesota in the near future. New DNC head and former VT Gov. & Presidential hopeful turned lunatic Howard Dean won't play well in the heartland. ("Eeeeeyaaaahhh!!!") GOP Rep. Jim Leach (38), demonized by the left for his role in the Clinton Impeachment Hearings, is actually the worst scoring Republican in the House (save for the recently converted ex-Democrat Rep. Rodney Alexander of LA, who should easily out score him soon)! Democratic Rep. Leonard Boswell (-12) can sometimes be reasonable; Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin (-75) cannot.

    27) LOUISIANA (80.83)
    1:1, 5:2

    Trending further to the right now, with the rest of the South, after lagging behind due to lots of corrupt Democratic political machinery (dating back to the old Huey Long days) that needed to be broken up. Republicans finally have a Senate seat here, after near misses in 1996 & 2002 (and yes folks, there were some shenanigans involved, particularly in '96, that probably made the difference)! GOP Sen. David Vitter replaces retiring Dem. Sen. John Breaux. Dem. Sen. Mary Landrieu (-6) (who won that dubious 1996 election and then barely won re-election in 2002) is fairly reasonable at times. Rep. Rodney Alexander (34) recently changed parties & his RPI should rise considerably in the near future, as will the state's RPI with 2 new Republican Congressmen (including a rising star in Rep. Bobby Jindal) & only 1 new Dem. Representative yet to account for in the scoring.

    28) NORTH CAROLINA (72.00)
    2:0, 7:6

    Another state trending more red. RPI forecast is looking up! New GOP Sen. Richard Burr (146 while in the House) replaces the show-pony/ambulance-chaser, former Sen. & failed VP Candidate John "The Crippled Will Walk Again in a Kerry Administration" Edwards. Talk about an upgrade! Dem. Rep. Mike McIntyre (26) is a moderate. 2 brand new Congressional Republicans & 1 Democrat (G.K. Butterfield, who arrived mid-term in 2004) have yet to be scored.

    29) NEW MEXICO (60.00)
    1:1, 2:1

    Even popular Democratic Gov. Bill Richardson couldn't deliver this former Gore state to Kerry last year. Congressional delegation maintains its status quo. Of possible interest here is whether the Republicans will mount a serious challenge to liberal Dem. Sen. Jeff Bingaman (-52) in 2006. GOP Rep. Heather Wilson (121) is an intriguing possibility.

    30) MINNESOTA (49.20)
    1:1, 4:4

    The worm is turning in this once liberal bastion of the farming & industrial Great Lakes region. Republicans can almost taste these 10 electoral votes (along with those of neighboring Wisconsin). Word here is that lame-duck Dem. Sen. Mark "Evacuatin' Dayton" has read the writing on the wall and won't run in 2006 - not the best of news for the good guys seeing as how he should've been beaten by any but the most lame of GOP candidates. Nonetheless, another open Dem. seat is ripe for the picking! GOP nominee is likely to be Rep. Mark Kennedy (176), though former Sen. Rod Grams is among those who have also thrown their hats into the ring. Dems will put up a fight, but it is unclear at this early stage who their front runner is. Popular GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty could play a role in the 2008 race for the White House. Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson (22) is another Congressional moderate of note.

    31) MICHIGAN (43.44)
    0:2, 9:6

    If not for Detroit, the state of Michigan would already be safely in Republican hands. Look for a strong GOP challenge to first-term Dem. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (-63) in 2006.

    32) ILLINOIS (34.72)
    0:2, 9:10

    Medic! Medic! Man down! Man down! Once fairly evenly divided, IL has taken a turn for the worse (i.e., trended Democratic) in the wake of the scandals surrounding former GOP Gov. George "Truck Drivers' Licenses for Bribes" Ryan and an inept (to say the least) attempt at fielding a candidate for the 2004 Senate seat vacated by retired GOP Sen. Peter Fitzgerald. The result is media darling and new Democratic Senator-for-Life Barack Obama, far-far to the left and certain to help drag the state's RPI into the sewer! (The "buzz" already has the newbie Senator as the Dem frontrunner for the '08 VP slot for crying out loud! He hasn't done anything yet but coast to victory in a cakewalk against an outrageously out-of-step-with-the-mainstream carpet-bagger, you idiots! Sheeesh!) Former GOP Rep. Phil Crane losing to new Dem. Rep. Melissa Bean tilted the state's House balance from GOP to Dem and obviously doesn't help the RPI either! Nowhere to go but up from this mess! New State Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna and IL State House Republican Leader Tom Cross are among the reasons for hope here in my home state. (Let us pray!)

    33) WISCONSIN (20.44)
    0:2, 4:4

    Word in some circles is that only some highly dubious Democratic machine tactics kept this state out of the Bush column in 2004. It's only a matter of time though, as the Dems can't hold back the tide here for long and the damn will soon burst. Let's hope the GOP can recruit someone with teeth (popular former Gov. & HHS Sec. Tommy Thompson perhaps?) to challenge Dem. Sen. Herb Kohl (-56) in 2006. In the meantime, one as yet unrated new House Democrat is sure to drag RPI down a bit further.

    34) ARKANSAS (16.33)
    0:2, 1:3

    On the surface at least, it seems an abysmal RPI for a Southern state trending red, but it is, after all, the state that spawned former President Bill Clinton! Surprisingly enough though, only 1 of the state's 5 Congressional Democrats (Vic Snyder (-38)) qualifies as a hopeless partisan. Sen. Mark Pryor (0) & Sen. Blanche Lincoln (-12) are among the most reasonable Dems in the Senate. Of course, they have to be to survive! This state will keep following the rest of the South further right over time and the GOP will win out here eventually - count on it!

    35) CALIFORNIA (15.31)
    0:2, 20:32

    With the Governator on the scene, hope springs eternal that the GOP can make further strides here, but Dems control almost everything else at the present time and are among the nuttiest in the country! The Wicked Witch of the West, Sen. Barbara "Decertify Ohio" Boxer (-84), has emerged as one of the nation's leading crackpots! Vacant seat in Congress due to the recent death of Dem. Rep. Robert Matsui will almost certainly return to Democratic hands whenever a special election is held. One new Democrat & 1 Republican returning after a prolonged absence (Rep. Daniel Lungren) do not yet affect the score either, but won't make much of a dent in the RPI either way in the nation's most crowded delegation.

    36) NEW JERSEY (14.87)
    0:2, 6:7

    If the early polls are to be believed, current Dem. Sen. Jon Corzine (-69) will likely be elected Governor here and appoint his own Senatorial successor, who will have to defend the seat in 2006. But don't hold your breath for any GOP pick-up. This state does not seem ready for a change in spite of recent Democratic scandals in the Governor's office (James McGreevey) and the U.S. Senate (Robert Torricelli), but hope springs eternal!

    37) DELAWARE (5.00)
    0:2, 1:0

    GOP Rep. Michael Castle (66) is a moderate. Dem. Sen. Thomas Carper (-15) is somewhat reasonable. Dem. Sen. Joseph Biden (-36) drinks too much "Kool-Aid."

    38) MAINE (2.00)
    2:0, 0:2

    GOP holds both Senate seats here in mostly blue Maine, albeit with moderates (Sen. Susan Collins (60) & Sen. Olympia Snowe (46)).

    39) CONNECTICUT (-3.86)
    0:2, 3:2

    How the GOP holds onto so much here (Gov. Jodi Rell, 3 of 5 US House seats), especially in light of former GOP Gov. John Rowland's scandals, beats me - but I like it. All 3 GOP House members are moderates, but anything more would be too much to ask of them given the circumstances they face at home. Dem. Sen. Joseph Lieberman (-22) is a liberal on many (though not all) domestic issues, but unlike most of his fellow Democrats, he is reliable on issues like homeland security and defense. Rumors persist that he might accept a role in the Bush Administration sometime in the next year, which would allow the state's GOP Governor to appoint another Republican to the U.S. Senate, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

    40) WEST VIRGINIA (-5.80)
    0:2, 1:2

    Voted Bush in the last 2 elections and trending GOP, but it will take some time for the Congressional delegation to reflect this trend. A former Ku Klux Klansman (yes, you read that right - and it is true, look it up), Dem. Sen. Robert Byrd (-39) will be just shy of 89 when he is due up for re-election in 2006, but he will run again if he can still manage to stand, and would, most unfortunately, be a heavy favorite to win! They will likely have to carry his cold dead partisan body off the Senate floor someday before we are finally rid of him.

    41) OREGON (-8.14)
    1:1, 1:4

    Blue and soon getting bluer, I fear. GOP Sen. Gordon Smith (118) could be in real danger here in 2008.

    42) NEW YORK (-15.24)
    0:2, 9:20

    Ugh! GOP Gov. George Pataki is not polling well (to say the least) and is unlikely to run again for Gov. or for Senate. Dem. State Atty. Gen. Eliot Spitzer is likely the next Gov., unless former NYC Mayor and American Hero Rudolph Giuliani jumps in, but Rudy may want to run for President in 2008 instead, which would also likely rule him out of a Senate run. All of which means the Wicked Witch of the East, former First Lady (eeewwwww!!!) and current Dem. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (-73), is likely a shoo-in for re-election in 2006, paving the way for a White House run for Her Royal Libness in 2008. Look for her to continue to fake a move to the right in a highly orchestrated (and, quite frankly, transparent) attempt to fool gullible voters into thinking she's some kind of moderate (yeah, right.. and I'm the Queen of Sheeba). Let the media coronation commence! Her inevitable clashes with new DNC Chair Howard "The Scream" Dean and likely Presidential trail retreads MA Sen. John "Were You Aware That I Served in Vietnam?" Kerry & former VP Al "I've Completely Lost My Mind and I Just Don't Care" Gore should be fun to watch, though. One new Dem & 1 new Republican unscored here won't change RPI much. Republican Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (63) is a moderate.

    43) NORTH DAKOTA (-16.00)
    0:2, 0:1

    Are you seeing THIS??? Anyone home up there in RED North Dakota??? HELLO?!?!?! Is this the sort of representation you want in Congress??? All Dems, huh? Rep. Earl Pomeroy (2) is somewhat reasonable, but is that the best you can do??? And you just re-elected Byron Dorgan (-30) for 6 more years for crying out loud! What is wrong with you people??? A chance for a little redemption comes your way in 2006 as popular sitting GOP Gov. John Hoeven is reportedly being pushed to challenge Dem. Sen. Kent Conrad (-20), whose views no more match this state's than Max Baucus' match Montana's or Tom Daschle's matched South Dakota's! Let's go people! Roll up those sleeves, we've got work to do!!!

    44) MARYLAND (-22.30)
    0:2, 2:6

    Along with Republican Gov. Robert Ehrlich, GOP Lt. Gov. Michael Steele provides some hope here. Dem. Sen. Paul Sarbanes (-90) grades out as the absolute worst left-wing nut-job in the entire U.S. Senate and is up for re-election in 2006. What do you say Man of Steele? Can we take him on? PLEASE???

    45) WASHINGTON (-30.44)
    0:2, 3:6

    Ah, yes. That Washington. The one where the Governor's race was openly stolen by blatant recount fraud in good old heavily Democratic King County. Where they kept "finding" votes until they had enough to make Christine Gregoire the "winner." Think Republican Dino Rossi might like to exact a little revenge by unseating Dem. Sen. Maria Cantwell (-54) in 2006? Keep in mind, though, that this state just re-elected the utterly embarrassing Dem. Sen. Patty "Al Qaeda Builds Schools and Hospitals for the Poor" Murray (-65). It's also home to someone I believe to be an outright American traitor in Dem. Rep. "Baghdad Jim" McDermott (-85) who should probably be rotting in jail for his actions in the run-up to the Iraq War! Denouncing American foreign policy and the President of the United States in front of cameras on Iraqi soil - incredible! Priceless propaganda for our enemies there, Jimbo, thank you very much! Instead, he was resoundingly re-elected by the clueless liberals in his home district - of course! In spite of these and several other fools in this delegation, the overall RPI will go up some from what you see above as 2 new GOP Representatives are not yet figured in.

    46) SOUTH DAKOTA (-40.00)
    1:1, 0:1

    Oh. My. God!!! Of course, that RPI is strictly a reflection of partisan liberal Dem. Sen. Tim Johnson (-40) for now, but do people there actually believe he reflects their values with a score like that??? The fact that they ousted the biggest fraud in the U.S. Senate, former Democratic Minority Leader Tom "I'm a Moderate... No Really... C'mon Quit Laughing, I'm a Moderate I Tell You... I'm Not a Stone Wall!" Daschle in favor of new GOP Sen. John Thune last year shows that they are awakening from their coma up there. If only former GOP Gov. turned Rep. turned jailbird Bill "I Can't Drive 55" Janklow wasn't such a pinhead, there would've been no need to misrepresent themselves further with Dem. Rep. Stephanie Herseth. Herseth got her seat too late in the game to have a score yet, but you can bet it isn't even in the same solar system as Janklow's. Thune is returning after a layoff (he, too, used to be the at-large Congressman) due to a failed bid to unseat Johnson in 2002 and has no score that I can compute yet either. Thune will improve the state's RPI dramatically once he is accounted for here. (Thank God!) But you can do better with those other 2 seats up there, people! Get with the program!

    47) RHODE ISLAND (-41.25)
    1:1, 0:2

    Ahh. Home of RINO (Republican in name only) Sen. Lincoln Chafee (26, lowest of all the GOP in either chamber, of course) and an absolute joke of a Sen. in Dem. Jack Reed (-86). Rep. Patrick Kennedy (-62) (yes, he's related!) holds one of the 2 House seats. It looks hopeless, but never say die!

    48) HAWAII (-51.75)
    0:2, 0:2

    They don't call it "Blue Hawaii" for nothing! Popular GOP Gov. Linda Lingle is the only bright spot I can see here for the moment, but both of the state's Democratic Senators are growing very old, providing some hope for the future.

    49) VERMONT (-53.33)
    0:1:1, 0:0:1

    This is the home state of New DNC Chair & former Gov. Howard "I Hate the Republicans and All They Stand For" Dean. The current Congressional delegation consists of former Republican turned "Independent" (ahem!) Sen. "Jumpin' Jim" Jeffords (-26), Dem. Sen. Patrick "Dick Cheney Told Me to Go F*** Myself" Leahy (-57) and openly Socialist "Independent" (ahem!) Bernie "I Could Be the Dictionary Illustration of a Liberal Stereotype" Sanders (-77). This would be damned funny if it weren't so sad. Please fix this mess... or secede! Soon! (You could tack yourselves onto Canada real nice-like, too!) [Just kidding folks... well, maybe I'm kidding.]

    50) MASSACHUSETTS (-78.25)
    0:2, 0:10

    Good Lord! One word: P-A-T-H-E-T-I-C! Zero Republicans in a 12 person delegation! No wonder it ranks dead last! Not one RPI above -34 and just one above -62!!! Ahhh... the Kennedy fiefdom is alive and well! Sen. Ted "Our Troops Are the Problem" Kennedy (-80) & Sen. John "Did I Ever Mention I Served in Vietnam?" Kerry (-76) are just the beginning of the problem. Oy vey! The only question is, how do they keep electing Republican Governors (William Weld, Mitt Romney) here? Is it because they realize it is the only way to save themselves from being taxed back to the Stone Age? Must be. Nothing else makes sense.

    By the way, if anyone is still wondering where the Bush campaign came up with the "most liberal Senator" line they hammered Kerry with, it's simple: He had a Composite Liberal Score of 96 (corresponding Composite Conservative Score of 4) from The National Journal for 2003, the last year that such information had been compiled. On that scale (and remember, this is the independent source we are speaking of here), he was THE most liberal Senator in the whole U.S. of A.! No mere hot air there, folks! Game, set and match to Mr. Bush!

    Hat tips to everyone at PoliPundit and Daly Thoughts.

    UPDATE: Corrected Montana commentary to reflect the fact that Tom Daschle is from SOUTH Dakota (SD) not NORTH Dakota as I had erroneously typed. Hat tip to Dana from SD who caught the boo-boo, though just why anyone would want to admit that the numbskull is from their homestate I'll never know! Maybe that's why it took so long for anyone to correct me - trying to pawn him off on the neighbors, eh? I'm surprised it wasn't a North Dakotan who called me on it for defaming his or her state! In any case, please forgive the error. I obviously know where the big dud belongs as evidenced by the South Dakota commentary, it was an honest mistake. A thousand lashes with a soggy wet noodle for your humble pundit!

    UPDATE 2/25/05: Now that you've seen how they rate state by state, how would like to see how they all rate compared to each other? That's right, ranked in order, top to bottom, every member of the Senate and the House for whom the necessary data was available. "Mirror, mirror on the wall, who's the wackiest of them all?..." Interested? Just follow the Yellow Brick Road...

    5 comments:

    Pat said...

    Very impressive post, with lots of work! You need to publicize this post by sending emails around to a couple of the bigger blogs!

    Pat said...

    I was glad to pass this one over to Lorie, because I knew it was absolutely perfect for the Polipundit readers.

    A modest amount of self-promotion is acceptable in the blogosphere and can really help grow your blog. You can't do it for every little post, but for something like this where you've done an impressive amount of work and written a solid analysis, you should always send out an email to some of the larger bloggers who seem interested in the subject (technorati can be valuable this way). Sometimes they won't be interested, but sometimes you'll get lucky because your post fits in with something they've been thinking about posting about.

    Nice to see that site meter twirl, eh?

    Dana said...

    Excelent post. Lots of good info and plenty of humor mixed in.

    I would like to make a few suggestions though.

    1. In the Montana roundup, you mistakenly put Tom "Tommy Commie" Daschle in the state of ND (where I'd rather he were anyway, but not accurate).

    2. It should be noted that Tim Johnson (D-SD) only held his seat in 2002 by some electoral fraud one the large Indian Reservations in the west of the state. Stephanie Herseth got her seat due to a backlash against Janklow's criminal behaviour, and since she was only there for a few months before the 2004 general election, it can be argued that it still played a role in her re-election.

    3. The numbering system may be a bit clearer if you were to subtract 50 from each number (making the middle point 0) and then multiplying by two-thirds (making the extremes 100 and -100). Not a major point, but it would make it a bit clearer.

    Thanks from the schizophrenic red state of SD.

    Mr. Right said...

    Dear Dana,

    First of all, thank you for the compliments. As to the rest of your points:

    1) I have corrected the error. Thank you for catching it, I'm surprised that slipped by me. You get a hat-tip!

    2) You are, of course, correct, but I could not afford to get into absolutely every nuance in each and every state. Your comment stands on its own.

    3) If it makes you feel better, manipulate the data in any manner you wish, the raw numbers are included here. As for me, I will stick to the K.I.S.S. (keep it simple, stupid) method rather than submit the numbers to any more complicated mathematical formulas, at least for now.

    Thanks again!

    J said...

    Hey, I hate to rain on your parade a little... but shouldn't "moderate" be defined as drifting close to the median score of all of the representatives?

    Sure, in a nice abstract way, "moderate" should be 50ish, where a pol. gets 50 on all (+50 +50 -50, right?), but this introduces two biases: "moderate" is defined as being rated half conservative in two publications and half liberal in one; why not choose a second liberal source to zero it out? Or eliminate one of the conservative sources? As it is, it is possible that the two conservative sources could bias the result, seeing as how there's no gaurantee they're rating them 50% in alignment with the same votes or stances; some intersection is inevitable, but for +50 to be moderate, the interesection would have to be complete.

    The second bias is that, like I said, having a 50% in all 3 publications only means that the pols stood half the time with whatever the ideal views of these organizations were -- while it may be convenient to assume that the stances in each publication are equally valent on each side of the "conservative/liberal" line, it's by no means necessarily true. I know you wanted to stick to KISS, but it would also be simple to find the median scores, and find who hovers around them (though then this biases it towards whoever has numerical seniority, meaning "moderate" would be, for example, pulled to the right in a right-dominated Congress... hmmm...) Ok. Well. Since surveys have shown Republicans have less self-described "moderates" than Democrats, and the number of moderates has been decreasing over the years in the Republican ranks, this creates a real problem. As does the subjectivity of "left wing crazies" or "right wing crazies." (Of course, on your scale, higher is better and there is apparently no "too far right".)

    So I guess the best method would actually be a) to add another "liberal" source, and b) to have the median in order to compare it to a theoretical moderate based on agreeing half the time with everyone.

    Cheers.