Friday, October 15, 2010

Election 2010: Dueling Forecasts

***The information contained in this post may be updated or corrected as warranted***

Here it is, the second part of my massive 2010 election guide. (The first part listed every race in the country and highlighted any races that bore watching, adding in the Cook Partisan Voting Index of each state and district, as well as pertinent information, in the case of endangered Democrats at least, about the candidate's length of incumbency and voting record on certain bills.) That, as it turned out, may have been the easy part!

I always wondered why nobody ever bothered to compare the election forecast models of the top forecasters side-by-side. Now I know: way too much work! Hopefully, someone else will find this interesting, or else I guess I will have wasted my time. I hope to update this list from time to time between now and the election.

As I stated in my last post, I am not a non-partisan observer here. I look forward to watching as many Democrats as humanly possible swept away by a giant GOP tidal wave on Election Day!

Anyhow, what follows is a comprehensive list of every House race, Senate race and Governor's race in the country that appear as anything less than "safe" for the incumbent party on any of the following lists:

Cook - The Cook Political Report


CQ - CQ Politics

  • CQ - House (Last checked 10/14)
  • CQ - Senate (Last checked 10/14)
  • NOTE: No recent enough update to Governor's races to be of any use here.

RCP - Real Clear Politics


Rothenberg - The Rothenberg Political Report


Sabato - Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball


Silver - Nate Silver/FiveThirtyEight


Key:

  • SR - Safe Republican (only turnovers are listed)
  • LKR - Likely Republican
  • LnR - Leans Republican
  • TU - Toss Up
  • LnD - Leans Democrat
  • LKD - Likely Democrat
  • SD - Safe Democrat (only turnovers are listed)

NOTE: Nate Silver uses a method by which he computes the chance of a seat going to one candidate or another. To translate his percentages, I used the following formula:

  • 50-50.9% = Toss-Up
  • 60-79.9% = Lean
  • 80-99.8% = Likely
  • 99.9-100% = Safe

THE LIST:

DEMOCRAT SEATS:

U.S. SENATE (19):

  • Cook - 13
  • CQ - 13
  • RCP - 15
  • Rothenberg -13
  • Sabato - 13
  • Silver - 15

Total Seats Listed: 16


AR (Lincoln)
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - LKR
  • RCP - SR
  • Rothenberg - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

CA (Boxer)
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - LKD

CO (Bennet)
  • Cook -TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LnR

CT (OPEN - Dodd)
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - LnD
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - LKD

DE (OPEN-Kaufman)
  • Cook - LKD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - LKD
  • Rothenberg - LKD
  • Sabato - LKD

IL (OPEN-Burris)
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - TU

IN (OPEN-Bayh)
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - LnR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Rothenberg - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

MD (Mikulski)
  • Silver - LKD

NV (Reid)
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - TU

NY (Gillibrand)
  • RCP - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

ND (OPEN-Dorgan)
  • Cook - SR
  • CQ - SR
  • RCP - SR
  • Rothenberg - SR
  • Sabato - SR
  • Silver - SR

OR (Wyden)
  • RCP - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

PA (OPEN-Specter)
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - LnR
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

WA (Murray)
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - LnD

WV (OPEN-Goodwin)
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - TU

WI (Feingold)
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR


U.S. HOUSE (256):

  • Cook - 115
  • CQ - 101
  • RCP - 130
  • Rothenberg - 88
  • Sabato - 99
  • Silver - 122

Total Seats Listed: 132


AL-02 (Bright) R+16
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - LnR

AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick) R+6
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - LnR
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - LnR
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

AZ-05 (Mitchell) R+5
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - LnR

AZ-07 (Grijalva) D+6
  • Cook - LKD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - LKD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

AZ-08 (Giffords) R+4
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - TU

AR-01 (OPEN-Berry) R+8
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

AR-02 (OPEN- Snyder) R+5
  • Cook - LKR
  • CQ - LKR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Rothenberg - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

AR-04 (Ross) R+7
  • Cook - LKD
  • RCP - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

CA-11 (McNerney) R+1
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - TU

CA-18 (Cardoza) D+4
  • Cook - LKD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

CA-20 (Costa) D+5
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - TU
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

CA-47 (Loretta Sanchez) D+4
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

CO-03 (Salazar) R+5
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - TU

CO-04 (Markey) R+6
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - LnR
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - LKR
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

CO-07 (Perlmutter) D+4
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

CT-01 (Larson) D+13
  • RCP - LKD

CT-02 (Courtney) D+6
  • RCP - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

CT-04 (Himes) D+5
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Rothenberg - LKD
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - LKD

CT-05 (C. Murphy) D+2
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - LKD
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - LnD

FL-02 (Boyd) R+6
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - LnR

FL-08 (Grayson) R+2
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - LnR

FL-22 (Klein) D+1
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - TU

FL-24 (Kosmas) R+4
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - LnR
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - LKR
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

GA-02 (S. Bishop) D+1
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - LnD

GA-08 (Marshall) R+10
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - LnR

GA-12 (Barrow) D+1
  • Cook - LKD
  • RCP - LKD

ID-01 (Minnick) R+18
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - LnD

IL-08 (Bean) R+1
  • Cook - LKD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

IL-11 (Halvorson) R+1
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - LnR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Rothenberg - LKR
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

IL-14 (Foster) R+1
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - TU

IL-17 (Hare) D+3
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - TU

IN-02 (Donnelly) R+2
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - LnD

IN-08 (OPEN-Ellsworth) R+8
  • Cook - LKR
  • CQ - LnR
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - LnR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

IN-09 (Hill) R+6
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - TU

IA-01 (Braley) D+5
  • Cook - LKD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Silver - LKD

IA-02 (Loebsack) D+7
  • Cook - LKD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

IA-03 (Boswell) D+1
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - TU

KS-03 (OPEN-Moore) R+3
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - LKR
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - LnR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

KY-03 (Yarmuth) D+2
  • Cook - LKD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Rothenberg - LKD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

KY-06 (Chandler) R+9
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - TU

LA-03 (OPEN-Melancon) R+12
  • Cook - LKR
  • CQ - SR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Rothenberg - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

ME-01 (Pingree) D+8
  • Cook - LKD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Silver - LKD

ME-02 (Michaud) D+3
  • Cook - LKD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Silver - LKD

MD-01 (Kratovil) R+13
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - LnR
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - LnR
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

MA-04 (Frank) D+14
  • Cook - LKD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - LKD

MA-05 (Tsongas) D+8
  • Cook - LKD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

MA-06 (Tierney) D+7
  • RCP - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

MA-10 (OPEN-Delahunt) D+5
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - LnD

MI-01 (OPEN-Stupak) R+3
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

MI-07 (Schauer) R+2
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - LnR

MI--09 (Peters) D+2
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - LKD
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - LnD

MI-15 (Dingell) D+13
  • RCP - LnD
  • Silver - LKD

MN-01 (Walz) R+1
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Rothenberg - LKD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

MN-07 (Peterson) R+5
  • Silver - LKD

MN-08 (Oberstar) D+3
  • Cook - LKD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - LKD
  • Rothenberg - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

MS-01 (Childers) R+14
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

MS-02 (Thompson) D+12
  • RCP - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

MS-04 (Taylor) R+20
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LnD

MO-03 (Carnahan) D+7
  • Cook - LKD
  • RCP - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

MO-04 (Skelton) R+14
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - TU

NV-03 (Titus) D+2
  • Cook -TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - TU

NH-01 (Shea-Porter) EVEN
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

NH-02 (OPEN-Hodes) D+3
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LnR

NJ-03 (Adler) R+1
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - LnD

NJ-06 (Pallone) D+8
  • RCP - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

NJ-12 (Holt) D+5
  • Cook - LKD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

NM-01 (Heinrich) D+5
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - LKD

NM-02 (Teague) R+6
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - LnR
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LnR

NM-03 (Lujan) D+7
  • Cook - LKD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Silver - LKD

NY-01 (T. Bishop) EVEN
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

NY-02 (Israel) D+4
  • RCP - LKD

NY-04 (McCarthy) D+6
  • Cook - LKD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - LKD

NY-13 (McMahon) R+4
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - LKD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

NY-19 (Hall) R+3
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - LnR

NY-20 (S. Murphy) R+2
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - LnD

NY-22 (Hinchey) D+6
  • Cook - LKD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

NY-23 (Owens) R+1
  • Cook -TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - LnR

NY-24 (Arcuri) R+2
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - TU

NY-25 (Maffei) D+3
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - LKD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

NY-27 (Higgins) D+4
  • RCP - LKD

NY-29 (VACANT-Massa) R+5
  • Cook - LKR
  • CQ - SR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Rothenberg - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

NC-02 (Etheridge) R+2
  • Cook - LnD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

NC-04 (Price) D+8
  • RCP - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

NC-07 (McIntyre) R+5
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - LKD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - TU

NC-08 (Kissell) R+2
  • Cook -TU
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - TU

NC-11 (Shuler) R+6
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - TU
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LnD

ND-AL (Pomeroy) R+10
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

OH-01 (Driehaus) D+1
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - LnR
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - LnR
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

OH-06 (Wilson) R+2
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - LnD

OH-09 (Kaptur) D+10
  • Silver - LKD

OH-10 (Kucinich) D+8
  • RCP - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

OH-13 (Sutton) D+5
  • Cook - LKD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

OH-15 (Kilroy) D+1
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - LnR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Rothenberg - LKR
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

OH-16 (Boccieri) R+4
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - LnR

OH-18 (Space) R+7
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - LnD

OK-02 (Boren) R+14
  • RCP - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

OR-01 (Wu) D+8
  • Cook - LKD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

OR-04 (DeFazio) D+2
  • RCP - LKD

OR-05 (Schrader) D+1
  • Cook -TU
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - LnD

PA-03 (Dahlkemper) R+3
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - LnR
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - LnR
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

PA-04 (Altmire) R+6
  • Cook - LKD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Rothenberg - LKD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

PA-07 (OPEN-Sestak) D+3
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - LnR

PA-08 (P. Murphy) D+2
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LnR

PA-10 (Carney) R+8
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - LKR

PA-11 (Kanjorski) D+4
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - LnR
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

PA-12 (Critz) R+1
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - LKD
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - TU

PA-13 (Schwartz) D+7
  • RCP - LKD

PA-17 (Holden) R+6
  • Cook - LKD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Rothenberg - LKD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

RI-01 (OPEN-Kennedy) D+13
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

SC-05 (Spratt) R+7
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - TU

SD-AL (Herseth-Sandlin) R+9
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - LnR

TN-04 (Davis) R+13
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Rothenberg - LKD
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - TU

TN-05 (Cooper) D+3
  • RCP - LKD

TN-06 (OPEN-Gordon) R+13
  • Cook - LKR
  • CQ - SR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Rothenberg - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

TN-08 (OPEN-Tanner) R+6
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - LnR
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

TX-17 (Edwards) R+20
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - LnR
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - LKR
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

TX-23 (Rodriguez) R+4
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - LnD

TX-25 (Doggett) D+6
  • RCP - LKD

TX-27 (Ortiz) R+2
  • Cook - LKD
  • RCP - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

UT-02 (Matheson) R+15
  • Cook - LKD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Silver - LKD

VA-02 (Nye) R+5
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LnR

VA-05 (Perriello) R+5
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

VA-09 (Boucher) R+11
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - LnD

VA-11 (Connolly) D+2
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - LKD
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - LKD

WA-02 (Larsen) D+3
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LnD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LnD

WA-03 (OPEN-Baird) EVEN
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

WA-09 (Smith) D+5
  • Cook - LKD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Silver - LKD

WV-01 (OPEN-Mollohan) R+9
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - TU

WV-03 (Rahall) R+6
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

WI-03 (Kind) D+4
  • Cook -LnD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Rothenberg - LKD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

WI-07 (OPEN-Obey) D+3
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LnR

WI-08 (Kagen) R+2
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - LnR


GOVERNORS (19):

  • Cook - 17
  • RCP - 19
  • Rothenberg - 17
  • Sabato - 19
  • Silver - 19

Total Seats Listed: 19


AR (Beebe)
  • RCP - LKD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

CO (OPEN-Ritter)
  • Cook - LKD
  • RCP - LKD
  • Rothenberg - LKD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

IL (Quinn)
  • Cook - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - LnR
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LnR

IA (Culver)
  • Cook - LKR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Rothenberg - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

KS (OPEN-Parkinson)
  • Cook - SR
  • RCP - SR
  • Rothenberg - SR
  • Sabato - SR
  • Silver - LKR

ME (OPEN-Baldacci)
  • Cook - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - LnR

MD (O'Malley)
  • Cook - TU
  • RCP - LnD
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - LKD

MA (Patrick)
  • Cook - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - LnD

MI (OPEN-Granholm)
  • Cook - LKR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Rothenberg - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

NH (Lynch)
  • Cook - TU
  • RCP - LKD
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - LKD

NM (OPEN-Richardson)
  • Cook - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

NY (OPEN-Paterson)
  • RCP - LKD
  • Sabato - LKD
  • Silver - LKD

OH (Strickland)
  • Cook - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

OK (OPEN-Henry)
  • Cook - LKR
  • RCP - SR
  • Rothenberg - SR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

OR (OPEN-Kulongoski)
  • Cook - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - TU

PA (OPEN-Rendell)
  • Cook - LnR
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

TN (OPEN-Bredesen)
  • Cook - SR
  • RCP - SR
  • Rothenberg - SR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

WI (OPEN-Doyle)
  • Cook - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

WY (OPEN-Freudenthal)
  • Cook - SR
  • RCP - SR
  • Rothenberg - SR
  • Sabato - SR
  • Silver - LKR


REPUBLICAN SEATS:

U.S. SENATE (18):

  • Cook - 8
  • CQ - 8
  • RCP - 8
  • Rothenberg - 7
  • Sabato - 8
  • Silver - 11

Total Seats Listed: 11


AK (Murkowski)
  • Cook - LKR
  • CQ - LKR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LnR

AZ (McCain)
  • Silver - LKR

FL (OPEN-LeMieux)
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - LnR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Rothenberg - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

GA (Isakson)
  • Silver - LKR

IA (Grassley)
  • Silver - LKR

KY (OPEN-Bunning)
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - LnR
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

LA (Vitter)
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - LKR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Rothenberg - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

MO (OPEN-Bond)
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - LnR
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - LnR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

NH (OPEN-Gregg)
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - LnR
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

NC (Burr)
  • Cook - LKR
  • CQ - LKR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Rothenberg - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

OH (OPEN-Voinovich)
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - LnR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Rothenberg - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR


U.S. HOUSE (179):

  • Cook - 17
  • CQ - 9
  • RCP - 16
  • Rothenberg - 9
  • Sabato - 17
  • Silver - 22

Total Seats Listed: 22


AL-05 (Griffith) R+12
  • Cook - LKR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

AZ-03 (OPEN-Shadegg) R+9
  • Cook - LKR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

CA-03 (Lungren) R+6
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

CA-44 (Calvert) R+6
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

CA-45 (Bono-Mack) R+3
  • Cook - LKR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

CA-50 (Bilbray) R+3
  • Silver - LKR

DE-AL (OPEN-Castle) D+7
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - LKD

FL-05 (OPEN-Brown-Waite) R+9
  • Silver - LKR

FL-12 (OPEN-Putnam) R+6
  • Cook - LKR
  • CQ - LKR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

FL-25 (OPEN- Diaz-Balart) R+5
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - LnR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Rothenberg - LnR
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

HI-01 (Djou) D+11
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - LnD

IL-10 (OPEN-Kirk) D+6
  • Cook - TU
  • CQ - TU
  • RCP - LnD
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - TU

IN-03 (VACANT-Souder) R+14
  • Silver - LKR

LA-02 (Cao) D+25
  • Cook - LnD
  • CQ - LKD
  • RCP - LnD
  • Rothenberg - LKD
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - LKD

MI-03 (OPEN-Ehlers) R+6
  • Cook - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

MI-11 (McCotter) EVEN
  • Silver - LKR

MN-06 (Bachmann) R+7
  • Cook - LKR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

NE-02 (Terry) R+6
  • Cook - LKR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

OH-12 (Tiberi) D+1
  • Cook - LKR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

PA-06 (Gerlach) D+4
  • Cook - LKR
  • RCP - LnR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

PA-15 (Dent) D+2
  • Cook - LnR
  • CQ - LnR
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - LKR
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

WA-08 (Reichert) D+3
  • Cook - LKR
  • CQ - LnR
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - LKR
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR


GOVERNORS (18):

  • Cook - 14
  • RCP - 12
  • Rothenberg - 10
  • Sabato - 15
  • Silver - 16

Total Seats Listed: 16


AL (OPEN-Riley)
  • Cook - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

AK (Parnell)
  • Silver - LKR

AZ (Brewer)
  • Cook - LKR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Rothenberg - LnR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

CA (OPEN-Schwarzenegger)
  • Cook - TU
  • RCP - LnD
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - LnD

CT (OPEN-Rell)
  • Cook - TU
  • RCP - LnD
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - LKD

FL (OPEN-Crist)
  • Cook - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - TU

GA (OPEN-Perdue)
  • Cook - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

HI (OPEN-Lingle)
  • Cook - LnD
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - LnD
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - LKD

ID (Otter)
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

MN (OPEN-Pawlenty)
  • Cook - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - LnD

NV (OPEN-Gibbons)
  • Cook - LKR
  • RCP - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

RI (OPEN-Carcieri)
  • Cook - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnD
  • Silver - TU

SC (OPEN-Sanford)
  • Cook - LnR
  • RCP - LnR
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

SD (OPEN-Rounds)
  • Cook - LKR
  • Sabato - LKR
  • Silver - LKR

TX (Perry)
  • Cook - TU
  • RCP - LnR
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - LnR
  • Silver - LKR

VT (OPEN-Douglas)
  • Cook - TU
  • RCP - TU
  • Rothenberg - TU
  • Sabato - TU
  • Silver - LnD



For those that are interested, most of the material on the rest of this blog is quite dated. For the last couple of years, I have concentrated mostly on political satire and humorous photoshops at my other blog, America is an Obamanation!. I also proudly post occasionally at the humor blog IMAO. Thank you for visiting!

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Election 2010

***The information contained in this post may be updated or corrected as warranted***

[UPDATE 10/15: For a comprehensive seat-by-seat comparison of all the major election forecasts, see my latest post, Election 2010: Dueling Forecasts.]

Here it is at last! A comprehensive guide to all the major races: Governorships, U.S. Senate and U.S. House.

For those who want a non-partisan analysis, keep looking because you are not going to find it here! I am openly rooting for a Republican tsunami unlike anything we have ever witnessed in our lifetimes and much wailing and gnashing of teeth among the Democrats! I hope to crush them, see them driven before us, and to hear the lamentations of their women!

Races of particular interest, where there is at least some chance of a party switch, however small, are in bold print.

What was the criteria used in selecting those races, you ask?

First, all Democrat incumbents or open Democrat seats in House races in districts with a Cook PVI of D+8 or less are highlighted. Why? The Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) shows the partisan voting deviation of a particular district when measured against the national vote totals in the most recent 2 Presidential elections. With Obama tanking in the polls and Gallup releasing a likely voter poll showing two models with Republicans leading the generic ballot by either 13 or 18, one can take the median of the two, practically cut it in half, and STILL put every one of those seats theoretically in play!

For seats with a PVI higher than D+8, Senate seats, or Governorships, a major source (such as Charlie Cook, Jim Geraghty at NRO, or Dick Morris) had to have mentioned or rated the race as possibly competitive or have cited a poll showing it to be the case.

Is it likely that all of those seats are indeed about to switch hands? Of course not! Most deep blue seats will remain blue even in a year such as this, but not all of them, so they bear watching! Besides, you must admit that if any of the truly mighty were to fall in extremely unlikely districts, such as Barney Frank (MA-04), Steny Hoyer (MD-05), or John Dingell (MI-15), it would certainly make for a wonderful election day evening, now wouldn't it? That's worth keeping an eye on! Heck, even if any of these races are close and make those worms who are used to cruising to uncontested victories squirm a bit, it'll still be fun!

Republican seats in danger in an environment such as this are treated with much more caution, as I think there is little chance of the Democrats gaining enough momentum to flip anything but the most vulnerable seats, so only those that are most often mentioned as endangered are in bold.

Some other things to help you follow along...

OPEN Indicates seats in which the incumbent is not on the ballot in the General Election after retiring, losing in the primary, or running for another office instead.

VACANT Indicates seats in which there is no incumbent, as the previous occupant resigned and no replacement has yet been chosen. There are presently only 2 of these, IN-03 and NY-29.

At Large is used to indicate that a given House seat is a statewide office. This occurs in states where the population is small enough that the state only warrants a single seat in the House of Representatives. 7 states (AK, DE, MT, ND, SD, VT and WY) have only 1 Representative each.

If I have to explain to you what (R) and (D) mean, I will hurt you. No really, why are you reading this if I have to explain that? Sheesh!

Other party affiliations that may appear are (L) Libertarian, (G) Green, or (I) Independent [NOTE: this last designation may also be used for a candidate from a minor party with no major national presence.] Only those candidates that appear to be a potential factor in the race are listed. I'm really not going to spend any more time typing the names of hundreds of people who don't have a prayer in Hell of cracking 5% in the election. Talk about a waste of time!

[Inc] Indicates the incumbent.

As a rule, the incumbent or the candidate from the incumbent party will appear first in each race listed.

A combination of numbers and letters are used to indicate the current make-up of each state's Senate or House delegation. For example: 5-R, 2-D next to the words U.S. House would indicate that there are presently 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats in that state's House delegation. This is the current reality, not a predicted outcome.

R+n or D+n indicates a given district's or state's Cook PVI. If you see the word EVEN there instead... well, I really hope I don't need to explain that one any further.

Where applicable, in races of interest (those in bold), an endangered Democrat's voting record on the 3 most controversial partisan votes of the last 2 years are indicated along with their length of tenure in office. Obviously, the longer they have been there, the harder they would usually be to get rid of (but that rule may not always apply in an election such as this). If a particular bolded Democrat's vote on one or more of the bills in question is not listed, it means that they were not in office when the vote on that bill took place. Also, please recall that Cap & Trade was voted on in the House, but not in the Senate.

Links to the Roll Calls:
Stimulus - House (H.R. 1, 1/28/09)
Stimulus - Senate (H.R. 1, 2/10/09)
Cap & Trade - House (H.R. 2454, 6/26/09)
Health Care - Senate (H.R. 3590, 12/24/09)
Health Care - House (H.R. 3590, 3/21/10)

Democrats with only 1 or 2 terms who have voted for 2 or 3 of the most toxic bills and are in districts that have a Republican leaning, even, or just barely Democratic leaning PVI tend to be the ones in the most trouble according to all the predictions and polls, so I included them here so that we can easily follow any such correlations and trends, as well as to educate any of the voters in their districts who may happen to stop by.

CPC Member indicates that an endangered Democrat is a member of the particularly vile Congressional Progressive Caucus, which pretty much indicates that they are out and proud far-left Socialist loons whose names recently appeared on the Democrat Socialists of America's "One of ours!" list. Most of the CPC members are sheltered in extremely dark blue districts, but the more of these creeps we can rid ourselves of, the better! For those of you in not-so-deeply blue districts with a Congress-critter on that list, how exactly does that make you feel? Next time someone on that list claims to be a "centrist" or a "moderate," please... laugh them off the planet!!!

(I apologize in advance for any typos or mistakes. I have tried very hard to proofread this post multiple times, but due to it's sheer length, there are bound to be a few I missed. Please leave a comment if you spot something you think needs to be corrected. I will respond when I can, but it may be awhile. Thanks!)

For those that are interested, most of the material on the rest of this blog is quite dated. For the last couple of years, I have concentrated mostly on political satire and humorous photoshops at my other blog, America is an Obamanation!. I also proudly post occasionally at the humor blog IMAO. Thank you for visiting!


***UPDATE 10/13***
Added more Democrats to the endangered list:

CT-01 John Larson (D+13)
MS-02 Bennie Thompson (D+12)

Why? They are both now appearing on the Real Clear Politics watch list as "Likely Dem." They have also added Dennis Kucinich (OH-10) to their list, but he was already an automatic watch here as a D+8.

Added some Republicans, too, as they are listed by RCP as "Leans" rather than the safer designation of "Likely," (and yes, I am employing a double standard here due to the developing nature of this election). Here they are, let's make sure to help protect these folks, just in case:

CA-03 Dan Lungren (R+6) [Now listed by CQ "Toss-Up"]
PA-06 Jim Gerlach (D+4)
PA-15 Charlie Dent (D+2)
WA-08 Dave Reichert (D+3)

Also adding a Cook Report, CQ & Sabato GOP "Lean" seat:

FL-25 OPEN (R+5)


THE LIST

ALABAMA R+13

Governor:
OPEN
Robert Bentley (R)
Ron Sparks (D)
[Incumbent: Bob Riley (R) – Retiring due to term limits.]

U.S. Senate: 2-R
Richard Shelby (R) [Inc]
William Barnes (D)

[Not up this cycle: Jeff Sessions (R) - 2014]

U.S. House: 5-R, 2-D
01 - R+14
Jo Bonner (R) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

02 - R+16
Bobby Bright (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=N, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=N)
Martha Roby (R)


03 - R+9
Mike D. Rogers (R) [Inc]
Steve Segrest (D)

04 - R+26
Robert Aderholt (R) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

05 - R+12
OPEN
Mo Brooks (R)
Steve Raby (D)
[Incumbent: Parker Griffith (R) - Switched parties from Democrat in 2009; Lost Republican primary.]

06 - R+29
Spencer Bauchus (R)
[Unopposed]

07 - D+18
OPEN
Terri Sewell (D)
Don Chamberlain (R)
[Incumbent: Artur Davis (D) - Retiring. Lost Democrat primary for Governor.]


ALASKA R+13

Governor:
Sean Parnell (R) [Inc]
Ethan Berkowitz (D)

U.S. Senate: 1-R, 1-D
Joe Miller (R)
Scott McAdams (D)
Lisa Murkowski (I) [Inc]
(Lost Republican primary. Waging write-in campaign to keep seat.)


[Not up this cycle: Mark Begich (D) - 2014]

U.S. House: 1-R
At Large - R+13
Don Young (R) [Inc]
Harry Crawford (D)


ARIZONA R+6

Governor:
Jan Brewer (R) [Inc]
Terry Goddard (D)

U.S. Senate: 2-R
John McCain (R) [Inc]
Rodney Glassman (D)

[Not up this cycle: Jon Kyl (R) - 2012]

U.S. House: 5-D, 3-R
01 - R+6
Ann Kirkpatrick (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=Y)
Paul Gosar (R)


02 - R+13
Trent Franks (R)
John Thrasher (D)

03 - R+9
OPEN
Ben Quayle (R)
Jon Hulburd (D)
[Incumbent: John Shadegg (R) - Retiring.]

04 - D+13
Ed Pastor (D) [Inc]
Janet Contreras (R)

05 - R+5
Harry Mitchell (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=Y)
David Schweikert (R)


06 - R+15
Jeff Flake (R) [Inc]
Rebecca Schneider (D)

07 - D+6
Raul Grijalva (D) [Inc]
(4 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y, CPC Member)
Ruth McClung (R)


08 - R+4
Gabrielle Giffords (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Jesse Kelly (R)



ARKANSAS R+9

Governor:
Mike Beebe (D) [Inc]
Jim Keet (R)

U.S. Senate: 2-D
Blanche Lincoln (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Health Care=Y)
John Boozman (R)


[Not up this cycle: Mark Pryor (D) - 2014]

U.S. House: 3-D, 1-R
01 - R+8
OPEN
Chad Causey (D)
Rick Crawford (R)
[Incumbent: Marion Berry (D) - Retiring.]


02 - R+5
OPEN
Joyce Elliott (D)
Tim Griffin (R)
[Incumbent: Vic Snyder (D) - Retiring.]


03 - R+16
OPEN
Steve Womack (R)
David Whitaker (D)
[Incumbent: John Boozman (R) - Running for U.S. Senate]

04 - R+7
Mike Ross (D) [Inc]
(5 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=N)
Beth Anne Rankin (R)



CALIFORNIA D+7

Governor:
OPEN
Meg Whitman (R)
Jerry Brown (D)
[Incumbent: Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) – Retiring due to term limits.]


U.S. Senate: 2-D
Barbara Boxer (D) [Inc]
(3 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Health Care=Y)
Carly Fiorina (R)


[Not up this cycle: Dianne Feinstein (D) - 2012]

U.S. House: 34-D, 19-R
01 - D+13
Mike Thompson (D) [Inc]
Loren Hanks (R)

02 - R+11
Wally Herger (R) [Inc]
Jim Reed (D)

03 - R+6
Dan Lungren (R) [Inc]
Ami Bera (D)


04 - R+10
Tom McClintock (R) [Inc]
Clint Curtis (D)

05 - D+15
Doris Matsui (D) [Inc]
Paul A. Smith (R)

06 - D+23
Lynn Woolsey (D) [Inc]
Jim Judd (R)

07 - D+19
George Miller (D) [Inc]
Rick Tubbs (R)

08 - D+35
Nancy Pelosi (D) [Inc]
John Dennis (R)

09 - D+37
Barbara Lee (D) [Inc]
Gerald Hashimoto (R)

10 - D+11
John Garamendi (D) [Inc]
Gary Clift (R)

11 - R+1
Jerry McNerney (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
David Harmer (R)


12 - D+23
Jackie Speier (D) [Inc]
Mike Moloney (R)

13 - D+22
Pete Stark (D) [Inc]
Forest Baker (R)

14 - D+21
Anna Eshoo (D) [Inc]
Dave Chapman (R)

15 - D+15
Mike Honda (D) [Inc]
Scott Kirkland (R)

16 - D+16
Zoe Lofgren (D) [Inc]
Daniel Sahagun (R)
Edward Gonzalez (L)

17 - D+19
Sam Farr (D) [Inc]
Jeff Taylor (R)

18 - D+4
Dennis Cardoza (D) [Inc]
(4 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Michael Berryhill (R)


19 - R+9
OPEN
Jeff Denham (R)
Loraine Goodwin (D)
[Incumbent: George Radanovich (R) - Retiring.]

20 - D+5
Jim Costa (D) [Inc]
(3 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=Y)
Andy Vidak (R)


21 - R+13
Devin Nunes (R) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

22 - R+16
Kevin McCarthy (R) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

23 - D+12
Lois Capps (D) [Inc]
Tom Watson (R)

24 - R+4
Elton Gallegly (R) [Inc]
Timothy Allison (D)

25 - R+6
Howard "Buck" McKeon (R) [Inc]
Jackie Conaway (D)

26 - R+3
David Dreier (R) [Inc]
Russ Warner (D)

27 - D+13
Brad Sherman (D) [Inc]
Mark Reed (R)

28 - D+23
Howard Berman (D) [Inc]
Merlin Froyd (R)

29 - D+14
Adam Schiff (D) [Inc]
John Colbert (R)

30 - D+18
Henry Waxman (D) [Inc]
Charles Wilkerson (R)

31 - D+31
Xavier Becerra (D) [Inc]
Stephen Smith (R)

32 - D+15
Judy Chu (D) [Inc]
Edward Schmerling (R)

33 - D+35
OPEN
Karen Bass (D)
James Andion (R)
[Incumbent: Diane Watson (D) - Retiring.]

34 - D+22
Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) [Inc]
Wayne Miller (R)

35 - D+31
Maxine Waters (D) [Inc]
K. Bruce Brown (R)

36 - D+12
Jane Harman (D) [Inc]
Mattie Fein (R)

37 - D+26
Laura Richardson (D) [Inc]
Star Parker (R)

38 - D+18
Grace Napolitano (D) [Inc]
Robert Vaughn (R)

39 - D+12
Linda Sanchez (D) [Inc]
Larry Andre (R)

40 - R+8
Ed Royce (R) [Inc]
Christina Avalos (D)

41 - R+10
Jerry Lewis (R) [Inc]
Pat Meagher (D)

42 - R+10
Gary Miller (R) [Inc]
Michael Williamson (D)

43 - D+13
Joe Baca (D) [Inc]
Scott Folkens (R)

44 - R+6
Ken Calvert (R) [Inc]
Bill Hedrick (D)

45 - R+3
Mary Bono Mack (R) [Inc]
Steve Pougnet (D)

46 - R+6
Dana Rohrabacher (R) [Inc]
Ken Arnold (D)

47 - D+4
Loretta Sanchez (D) [Inc]
(7 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Van Tran (R)


48 - R+6
John Campbell (R) [Inc]
Beth Krom (D)

49 - R+10
Darrell Issa (R) [Inc]
Howard Katz (D)

50 - R+3
Brian Bilbray (R) [Inc]
Francine Busby (D)

51 - D+8
Bob Filner (D) [Inc]
(9 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y, CPC Member)
Nick Popaditch (R)


52 - R+9
Duncan Hunter (R) [Inc]
Ray Lutz (D)

53 - D+14
Susan Davis (D) [Inc]
Michael Crimmins (R)


COLORADO EVEN

Governor:
OPEN
John Hickenlooper (D)
Dan Maes (R)
Tom Tancredo (I)
[Imcumbent: Bill Ritter (D) - Retiring.]

U.S. Senate: 2-D
Michael Bennett (D) [Inc]
(Appointed to fill unexpired term of Ken Salazar (D) [now U.S. Sec. of Interior], Stimulus=Y, Health Care=Y)
Ken Buck (R)


[Not up this cycle: Mark Udall (D) - 2014]

U.S. House: 5-D, 2-R
01 - D+21
Diana DeGette (D) [Inc]
Mike Fallon (R)

02 - D+11
Jared Polis (D) [Inc]
Stephen Bailey (R)

03 - R+5
John Salazar (D) [Inc]
(3 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=Y)
Scott Tipton (R)


04 - R+6
Betsy Markey (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Cory Gardner (R)


05 - R+14
Doug Lamborn (R) [Inc]
Kevin Bradley (D)

06 - R+8
Mike Coffman (R) [Inc]
John Flerlage (D)

07 - D+4
Ed Perlmutter (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Ryan Frazier (R)



CONNECTICUT D+7

Governor:
OPEN
Thomas Foley (R)
Dan Malloy (D)
[Incumbent: Jodi Rell (R) - Retiring.]


U.S. Senate: 1-D, 1-I
OPEN
Richard Blumenthal (D)
Linda McMahon (R)
[Incumbent: Christopher Dodd (D) - Retiring.]


[Not up this cycle: Joe Lieberman (I) (Dem caucus) - 2012]

U.S. House: 5-D
01 - D+13
John Larson (D) [Inc]
(6 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Ann Brickley (R)


02 - D+6
Joe Courtney (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Janet Peckinpaugh (R)


03 - D+9
Rosa DeLauro (D) [Inc]
Jerry Labriola (R)

04 - D+5
Jim Himes (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Dan Debicella (R)


05 - D+2
Chris Murphy (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Sam Caligiuri (R)



DELAWARE D+7

Governor:
[Not up this cycle: Jack Markell (D) - 2012]

U.S. Senate: 2-D
OPEN
Chris Coons (D)
Christine O'Donnell (R)
[Incumbent: Ted Kaufman (D) - Retiring.]


[Not up this cycle: Tom Carper (D) - 2012]

U.S. House: 1-R
At Large - D+7
OPEN
Glen Urquhart (R)
John Carney (D)
[Incumbent: Mike Castle (R) - Retiring. Lost Republican Senate primary.]



FLORIDA R+2

Governor:
OPEN
Rick Scott (R)
Alex Sink (D)
Bud Chiles (I)
[Incumbent: Charlie Crist (I) - Dropped out of Republican Senate primary and quit party. Now running for Senate as an Independent.]


U.S. Senate: 1-R, 1-D
OPEN
Marco Rubio (R)
Kendrick Meek (D)
(As U.S. Rep., FL-17: Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Charlie Crist (I)
[Incumbent: George LeMieux (R) - Retiring.]


[Not up this cycle: Bill Nelson (D) - 2012]

U.S. House: 15-R, 10-D
01 - R+21
Jeff Miller (R) [Inc]
James Edward Bryan (D)

02 - R+5
Allen Boyd (D) [Inc]
(7 Terms, Stimulus=N, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Steve Southerland (R)


03 - D+18
Corrine Brown (D) [Inc]
Michael Yost (R)

04 - R+17
Ander Crenshaw (R) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

05 - R+9
OPEN
Richard Nugent (R)
Jim Piccillo (D)
[Incumbent: Ginny Brown-Waite (R) - Retiring.]

06 - R+10
Cliff Stearns (R) [Inc]
Steven E. Schonberg (D)

07 - R+7
John Mica (R) [Inc]
Heather Beaven (D)

08 - R+2
Alan Grayson (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y, CPC Member)
Daniel Webster (R)


09 - R+6
Gus Bilirakis (R) [Inc]
Anita de Palma (D)

10 - R+1
Bill Young (R) [Inc]
Charlie Justice (D)

11 - D+11
Kathy Castor (D) [Inc]
Mike Prendergast (R)

12 - R+6
OPEN
Dennis Ross (R)
Lori Edwards (D)
[Incumbent: Adam Putnam (R) - Running for FL Commissioner of Agriculture.]

13 - R+6
Vern Buchanan (R) [Inc]
James Golden (D)

14 - R+11
Connie Mack IV (R) [Inc]
James Roach (D)

15 - R+6
Bill Posey (R) [Inc]
Shannon Roberts (D)

16 - R+5
Tom Rooney (R) [Inc]
Jim Horn (D)

17 - D+34
OPEN
Frederica Wilson (D)
[Unopposed]
[Incumbent: Kendrick Meek (D) - Running for U.S. Senate]

18 - R+3
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) [Inc]
Rolando Banciella (D)

19 D+15
Ted Deutch (D) [Inc]
Joe Budd (R)

20 - D+13
Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (D) [Inc]
Karen Harrington (R)

21 - R+5
OPEN
Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
Willaim Sanchez (D)
[Incumbent: Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R) - Retiring.]

22 - D+1
Ron Klein (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Allen West (R)


23 - D+28
Alcee Hastings (D) [Inc]
Bernard Sansaricq (R)

24 - R+4
Suzanne Kosmas (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Sandra Adams (R)


25 - R+5
OPEN
David Rivera (R)
Joe Garcia (D)
[Incumbent: Mario Diaz-Balart (R) - Changed districts. Running for brother's old seat in FL-21.]



GEORGIA R+7

Governor:
OPEN
Nathan Deal (R)
Roy Barnes (D)
[Incumbent: Sonny Perdue (R) – Retiring due to term limits.]


U.S. Senate: 2-R
Johnny Isakson (R) [Inc]
Michael Thurmond (D)

[Not up this cycle: Saxby Chambliss (R) - 2014]

U.S. House: 7-R, 6-D
01 - R+16
Jack Kingston (R) [Inc]
Oscar L. Harris II (D)

02 - D+1
Sanford Bishop (D) [Inc]
(9 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Mike Keown (R)


03 - R+19
Lynn Westmoreland (R) [Inc]
Frank Saunders (D)

04 - D+24
Hank Johnson (D) [Inc]
Liz Carter (R)

05 - D+26
John Lewis (D) [Inc]
Fenn Little (R)

06 - R+19
Tom Price (R) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

07 - R+16
OPEN
Rob Woodall (R)
Doug Heckman (D)
[Incumbent: John Linder - Retiring.]

08 - R+10
Jim Marshall (D) [Inc]
(3 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=N)
Austin Scott (R)


09 - R+28
Tom Graves (R) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

10 - R+15
Paul Broun (R) [Inc]
Russell Edwards (D)

11 - R+20
Phil Gingrey (R) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

12 - D+1
John Barrow (D) [Inc]
(3 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=N)
Raymond McKinney (R)


13 - D+15
David Scott (D) [Inc]
Mike Crane (R)


HAWAII D+12

Governor:
OPEN
Duke Aiona (R)
Neil Abercrombie (D)
(As U.S. Rep., HI-01: Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y)
[Incumbent: Linda Lingle (R) – Retiring due to term limits.]


U.S. Senate: 2-D
Daniel Inouye (D) [Inc]
Cam Cavasso (R)

[Not up this cycle: Daniel Akaka (D) - 2012]

U.S. House: 1-R, 1-D
01 - D+11
Charles Djou (R) [Inc]
Colleen Hanabusa (D)


02 - D+14
Mazie Hirono (D)
John Willoughby (R)


IDAHO R+17

Governor:
C.L. "Butch" Otter (R) [Inc]
Keith Allred (D)

U.S. Senate: 2-R
Mike Crapo (R) [Inc]
Tom Sullivan (D)

[Not up this cycle: Jim Risch (R) - 2014]

U.S. House: 1-R, 1-D
01 - R+18
Walt Minnick (D)
(1 Term, Stimulus=N, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=N)
Raul Labrador (R)


02 - R+17
Mike Simpson (R)
Mike Crawford (D)


ILLINOIS D+8

Governor:
Pat Quinn (D) [Inc]
Bill Brady (R)


U.S. Senate: 2-D
OPEN
Alexi Giannoulias (D)
Mark Kirk (R)
[Incumbent: Roland Burris (D) - Retiring.]


[Not up this cycle: Dick Durbin (D) - 2014]

U.S. House: 12-D, 7-R
01 - D+34
Bobby Rush (D) [Inc]
Ray Wardingley (R)

02 - D+36
Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D) [Inc]
Isaac Hayes (R)

03 - D+11
Daniel Lipinski (D) [Inc]
Michael Bendas (R)

04 - D+32
Luis Gutierrez (D) [Inc]
Israel Vasquez (R)

05 - D+19
Mike Quigley (D) [Inc]
David Ratowitz (R)

06 - EVEN
Peter Roskam (R) [Inc]
Benjamin Lowe (D)

07 - D+35
Danny Davis (D) [Inc]
Mark Weiman (R)

08 - R+1
Melissa Bean (D) [Inc]
(3 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Joe Walsh (R)


09 - D+20
Jan Schakowsky (D) [Inc]
Joel Pollak (R)

10 - D+6
OPEN
Robert Dold (R)
Dan Seals (D)
[Incumbent: Mark Kirk (R) - Running for U.S. Senate.]


11 - R+1
Debbie Halvorson (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Adam Kinzinger (R)


12 - D+3
Jerry Costello (D) [Inc]
(12 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=Y)
Teri Newman (R)


13 - R+1
Judy Biggert (R) [Inc]
Scott Harper (D)

14 - R+1
Bill Foster (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=Y)
Randy Hultgren (R)


15 - R+6
Timothy V. Johnson (R) [Inc]
David Gill (D)

16 - R+2
Donald Manzulo (R) [Inc]
George Gaulrapp (D)

17 - D+3
Phil Hare (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y, CPC Member)
Bobby Schilling (R)


18 - R+6
Aaron Schock (R) [Inc]
Deirdre Hirner (D)

19 - R+9
John Shimkus (R) [Inc]
Tim Bagwell (D)


INDIANA R+6

Governor:
[Not up this cycle: Mitch Daniels (R) - 2012, Term-limited.]

U.S. Senate: 1-R, 1-D
OPEN
Brad Ellsworth (D)
(As U.S. Rep., IN-08: Stimulus=N, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=Y)
Dan Coats (R)
[Incumbent: Evan Bayh (D) - Retiring.]


[Not up this cycle: Richard Lugar (R) - 2012]

U.S. House: 5-D, 3-R, 1 vacant seat
01 - D+8
Pete Visclosky (D) [Inc]
(13 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=Y)
Mark Leyva (R)


02 - R+2
Joe Donnelly (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=Y)
Jackie Walorski (R)


03 - R+14
VACANT
Marlin Stutzman (R)
Thomas Hayhurst (D)
[Most Recent Incumbent: Mark Souder (R) - Resigned on May 21, 2010.]

04 - R+14
OPEN
Todd Rokita (R)
David Sanders (D)
[Incumbent: Steve Buyer (R) - Retiring.]

05 - R+17
Dan Burton (R) [Inc]
Tim Crawford (D)

06 - R+10
Mike Pence (R) [Inc]
Barry Welsh (D)

07 - D+14
Andre Carson (D) [Inc]
Marvin Scott (R)

08 - R+8
OPEN
William Trent Van Haaften (D)
Larry D. Bucshon (R)
[Incumbent: Brad Ellsworth (D) - Running for U.S. Senate.]


09 - R+6
Baron Hill (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Todd Young (R)



IOWA D+1

Governor:
Chet Culver (D) [Inc]
Terry Branstad (R)


U.S. Senate: 1-R, 1-D
Chuck Grassley (R) [Inc]
Roxanne Conlin (D)

[Not up this cycle: Tom Harkin (D) - 2014]

U.S. House: 3-D, 2-R
01 - D+5
Bruce Braley (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Benjamin Lange (R)


02 - D+7
David Loebsack (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)


03 - D+1
Leonard Boswell (D) [Inc]
(7 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Brad Zaun (R)


04 - EVEN
Tom Latham (R) [Inc]
Bill Maske (D)

05 - R+9
Steve King (R) [Inc]
Matthew Campbell (D)


KANSAS R+12

Governor:
OPEN
Sam Brownback (R)
Tom Holland (D)
[Incumbent: Mark Parkinson (D) - Retiring.]


U.S. Senate: 2-R
OPEN
Jerry Moran (R)
Lisa Johnston (D)
[Incumbent: Sam Brownback (R) - Running for Governor.]

[Not up this cycle: Pat Roberts (R) - 2014]

U.S. House: 3-R, 1-D
01 - R+23
OPEN
Tim Huelskamp (R)
Alan Jilka (D)
[Incumbent: Jerry Moran (R) - Running for U.S. Senate.]

02 - R+9
Lynn Jenkins (R) [Inc]
Cheryl Hudspeth (D)

03 - R+3
OPEN
Stephene Moore (D)
Kevin Yoder (R)
[Incumbent: Dennis Moore (D) - Retiring.]


04 - R+14
OPEN
Mike Pompeo (R)
Raj Goyle (D)
[Incumbent: Todd Tiahrt (R) - Retiring. Lost Republican Senate primary.]


KENTUCKY R+10

Governor:
[Not up this cycle: Steve Beshear (D) - 2011]

U.S. Senate: 2-R
OPEN
Rand Paul (R)
Jack Conway (D)
[Incumbent: Jim Bunning (R) - Retiring.]


[Not up this cycle: Mitch McConnell (R) - 2014]

U.S. House: R-4, D-2
01 - R+15
Ed Whitfield (R) [Inc]
Charles Hatchett (D)

02 - R+15
Brett Guthrie (R) [Inc]
Ed Marksberry (D)

03 - D+2
John Yarmuth (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Todd Lally (R)


04 - R+14
Geoff Davis (R) [Inc]
John Waltz (D)

05 - R+16
Hal Rogers (R) [Inc]
Jim Holbert (D)

06 - R+9
Ben Chandler (D) [Inc]
(4 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=N)
Garland Barr (R)



LOUISIANA R+10

Governor:
[Not up this cycle: Bobby Jindal (R) - 2011]

U.S. Senate: 1-R, 1-D
David Vitter (R) [Inc]
Charlie Melancon (D)
(As U.S. Rep., LA-03: Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=N)

[Not up this cycle: Mary Landrieu (D) - 2014]

U.S. House: 6-R, 1-D
01 - R+24
Steve Scalise (R) [Inc]
Myron Katz (D)

02 - D+25
Joseph Cao (R) [Inc]
Cedric Richmond (D)


03 - R+12
OPEN
Ravi Sangisetty (D)
Jeff Landry (R)
[Incumbent: Charlie Melancon (D) - Running for U.S. Senate.]


04 - R+11
John Fleming (R) [Inc]
David Melville (D)

05 - R+14
Rodney Alexander (R) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

06 - R+10
Bill Cassidy (R) [Inc]
Merritt McDonald (D)

07 - R+14
Charlers Boustany (R) [Inc]
[Unopposed]


MAINE D+5

Governor:
OPEN
Libby Mitchell (D)
Paul LePage (R)
Eliot Cutler (I)
[Incumbent: John Baldacci (D) - Retiring.]


U.S. Senate: 2-R
[Not up this cycle: Olympia Snowe (R) - 2012]
[Not up this cycle: Susan Collins (R) - 2014]

U.S. House: 2-D
01 - D+8
Chellie Pingree (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y, CPC Member)
Dean Scontras (R)


02 - D+3
Mike Michaud (D) [Inc]
(5 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Jason Levesque (R)



MARYLAND D+9

Governor:
Martin O'Malley (D) [Inc]
Bob Ehrlich (R)


U.S. Senate: 2-D
Barbara Mikulski (D) [Inc]
Eric Wargotz (R)

[Not up this cycle: Benjamin Cardin (D) - 2012]

U.S. House: 7-D, 1-R
01 - R+13
Frank Kratovil (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=N, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=N)
Andy Harris (R)


02 - D+7
Dutch Ruppersberger (D) [Inc]
(4 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Marcelo Cardarelli (R)


03 - D+6
John Sarbanes (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Jim Wilhelm (R)


04 - D+31
Donna Edwards (D) [Inc]
Robert Broadus (R)

05 - D+11
Steny Hoyer (D) [Inc]
(15 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Charles Lollar (R)


06 - R+13
Roscoe Bartlett (R) [Inc]
Andrew Duck (D)

07 - D+25
Elijah Cummings (D) [Inc]
Frank Mirabile (R)

08 - D+21
Chris Van Hollen (D) [Inc]
Michael Philips (R)


MASSACHUSETTS D+12

Governor:
Deval Patrick (D) [Inc]
Charlie Baker (R)
Tim Cahill (I)


U.S. Senate: 1-R, 1-D
[Not up this cycle: Scott Brown (R) - 2012]
[Not up this cycle: John Kerry (D) - 2014]

U.S. House: 10-D
01 - D+14
John Olver (D) [Inc]
Bill Gunn (R)

02 - D+9
Richard Neal (D) [Inc]
Tom Wesley (R)

03 - D+9
Jim McGovern (D) [Inc]
Marty Lamb (R)

04 - D+14
Barney Frank (D) [Inc]
(15 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Sean Bielat (R)


05 - D+8
Niki Tsongas (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Jon Golnik (R)


06 - D+7
John Tierney (D) [Inc]
(7 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Bill Hudak (R)


07 - D+15
Ed Markey (D) [Inc]
Gerry Dembrowski (R)

08 - D+32
Mike Capuano (D) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

09 - D+11
Stephen Lynch (D) [Inc]
Vernon Harrison (R)

10 - D+5
OPEN
Bill Keating (D)
Jeff Perry (R)
[Incumbent: Bill Delahunt (D) - Retiring.]



MICHIGAN D+4

Governor:
OPEN
Virg Bernero (D)
Rick Snyder (R)
[Incumbent: Jennifer Granholm (D) – Retiring due to term limits.]


U.S. Senate: 2-D
[Not up this cycle: Debbie Stabenow (D) - 2012]
[Not up this cycle: Carl Levin (D) - 2014]

U.S. House: 8-D, 7-R
01 - R+3
Gary McDowell (D)
Dan Benishek (R)
[Incumbent: Bart Stupak (D) - Retiring.]


02 - R+7
OPEN
Bill Huizenga (R)
Fred Johnson (D)
[Incumbent: Peter Hoekstra (R) - Retiring. Lost Republican primary for Governor.]

03 - R+6
OPEN
Justin Amash (R)
Pat Miles (D)
[Incumbent: Vern Ehlers (R) - Retiring.]

04 - R+3
Dave Camp (R) [Inc]
Jerry Campbell (D)

05 - D+11
Dale Kildee (D) [Inc]
John Kupiec (R)

06 - EVEN
Fred Upton (R) [Inc]
Don Cooney (D)

07 - R+2
Mark Schauer (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Tim Walberg (R)


08 - R+2
Mike Rogers (R) [Inc]
Lance Enderle (D)

09 - D+2
Gary Peters (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Rocky Raczkowski (R)


10 - R+5
Candice Miller (R) [inc]
Henry Yanez (D)

11 - EVEN
Thaddeus McCotter (R) [Inc]
Natalie Mosher (D)

12 - D+12
Sander Levin (D) [Inc]
Don Volaric (R)

13 - D+31
OPEN
Hansen Clarke (D)
John Hauler (R)
[Incumbent: Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D) - Lost primary.]

14 - D+34
John Conyers (D) [Inc]
Don Ukrainec (R)

15 - D+13
John Dingell (D) [Inc]
(28 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Rob Steele (R)



MINNESOTA D+2

Governor:
OPEN
Tom Emmer (R)
Mark Dayton (D)
Tom Horner (I)
[Incumbent: Tim Pawlenty (R) - Retiring.]


U.S. Senate: 2-D
[Not up this cycle: Amy Klobuchar (D) - 2012]
[Not up this cycle: Al Franken (D) - 2014]

U.S. House: 5-D, 3-R
01 - R+1
Tim Walz (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Randy Demmer (R)


02 - R+4
John Kline (R) [Inc]
Shelley Madore (D)

03 - EVEN
Erik Paulsen (R) [Inc]
Jim Meffert (D)

04 - D+13
Betty McCollum (D) [Inc]
(5 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Teresa Collett (R)


05 - D+23
Keith Ellison (D) [Inc]
Joel Demos (R)

06 - R+7
Michele Bachmann (R) [Inc]
Tarryl Clark (D)

07 - R+5
Collin Peterson (D) [Inc]
(10 terms, Stimulus=N, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=N)
Lee Byberg (R)


08 - D+3
Jim Oberstar (D) [Inc]
(18 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Chip Cravaack (R)



MISSISSIPPI R+10

Governor:
[Not up this cycle: Haley Barbour (R) - 2011, Term-limited.]

U.S. Senate: 2-R
[Not up this cycle: Roger Wicker (R) - 2012.]
[Not up this cycle: Thad Cochran (R) - 2014.]

U.S. House: 3-D, 1-R
01 - R+14
Travis Childers (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=N)
Alan Nunnelee (R)


02 - D+12
Bennie Thompson (D) [Inc]
(9 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y, CPC Member)
Bill Marcy (R)


03 - R+15
Gregg Harper (R) [Inc]
Joel Gill (D)

04 - R+20
Gene Taylor (D) [Inc]
(11 Terms, Stimulus=N, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=N)
Steven Palazzo (R)



MISSOURI R+3

Governor:
[Not up this cycle: Jay Nixon (D) - 2012.]

U.S. Senate: 1-R, 1-D
OPEN
Roy Blunt (R)
Robin Carnahan (D)
[Incumbent: Kit Bond (R) - Retiring.]

[Not up this cycle: Claire McCaskill (D) - 2012.]

U.S. House: 5-R, 4-D
01 - D+27
William Lacy Clay (D) [Inc]
Robyn Hamlin (R)

02 - R+9
Todd Akin (R) [Inc]
Arthur Lieber (D)

03 - D+7
Russ Carnahan (D) [Inc]
(3 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Ed Martin (R)


04 - R+14
Ike Skelton (D) [Inc]
(17 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Vicky Hartzler (R)


05 - D+10
Emanuel Cleaver (D) [Inc]
Jacob Turk (R)

06 - R+7
Sam Graves (R) [Inc]
Clint Hylton (D)

07 - R+17
OPEN
Billy Long (R)
Scott Eckersley (D)
[Incumbent: Roy Blunt (R) - Running for U.S. Senate.]

08 - R+15
Jo Ann Emerson (R) [Inc]
Tommy Sowers (D)

09 - R+9
Blaine Luetkemeyer (R) [Inc]
[Unopposed]


MONTANA R+7

Governor:
[Not up this cycle: Brian Schweitzer (D) - 2012.]

U.S. Senate: 2-D
[Not up this cycle: Jon Tester (D) - 2012.]
[Not up this cycle: Max Baucus (D) - 2014.]

U.S. House: 1-R
At Large - R+7
Denny Rehberg (R) [Inc]
Dennis McDonald (D)


NEBRASKA R+13

Governor:
Dave Heineman (R) [Inc]
Mike Meister (D)

U.S. Senate: 1-R, 1-D
[Not up this cycle: Ben Nelson (D) - 2012.]
[Not up this cycle: Mike Johanns (R) - 2014.]

U.S. House: 3-R
01 - R+11
Jeff Fortenberry (R) [Inc]
Ivy Harper (D)

02 - R+6
Lee Terry (R) [Inc]
Tom White (D)

03 - R+24
Adrian Smith (R) [Inc]
Rebekah Davis (D)


NEVADA D+1

Governor:
OPEN
Brian Sandoval (R)
Rory Reid (D)
[Incumbent: Jim Gibbons (R) - Lost primary.]

U.S. Senate: 1-R, 1-D
Harry Reid (D) [Inc]
(4 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Health Care=Y)
Sharron Angle (R)


[Not up this cycle: John Ensign (R) - 2012.]

U.S. House: 2-D, 1-R
01 - D+10
Shelley Berkley (D) [Inc]
Kenneth Wegner (R)

02 - R+5
Dean Heller (R) [Inc]
Nancy Price (D)

03 - D+2
Dina Titus (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Joe Heck (R)



NEW HAMPSHIRE D+2

Governor:
John Lynch (D) [Inc]
John Stephen (R)


U.S. Senate: 1-R, 1-D
OPEN
Kelly Ayotte (R)
Paul Hodes (D)
(As U.S. Rep., NH-02: Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
[Incumbent: Judd Gregg (R) - Retiring.]

[Not up this cycle: Jeanne Shaheen (D) - 2014.]

U.S. House: 2-D
01 - EVEN
Carol Shea-Porter (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Frank Guinta (R)


02 - D+3
OPEN
Ann Kuster (D)
Charlie Bass (R)
[Incumbent: Paul Hodes (D) - Running for U.S. Senate.]



NEW JERSEY D+4

Governor:
[Not up this cycle: Chris Christie (R) - 2013.]

U.S. Senate: 2-D
[Not up this cycle: Bob Menendez (D) - 2012.]
[Not up this cycle: Frank Lautenberg (D) - 2014.]

U.S. House: 8-D, 5-R
01 - D+12
Rob Andrews (D) [Inc]
Dale Glading (R)

02 - D+1
Frank LoBiondo (R) [Inc]
Gary Stein (D)

03 - R+1
John Adler (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=N)
Jon Runyan (R)


04 - R+6
Chris Smith (R) [Inc]
Howard Kleinhendler (D)

05 - R+7
Scott Garrett (R) [Inc]
Tod Theise (D)

06 - D+8
Frank Pallone (D) [Inc]
(11 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y, CPC Member)
Anna Little (R)


07 - R+3
Leonard Lance (R) [Inc]
Ed Potosnak (D)

08 - D+10
Bill Pascrell (D) [Inc]
Roland Straten (R)

09 - D+9
Steve Rothman (D) [Inc]
Michael Agosta (R)

10 - D+33
Donald Payne (D) [Inc]
Michael Alonso (R)

11 - R+7
Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) [Inc]
Douglas Herbert (D)

12 - D+5
Rush Holt, Jr. (D) [Inc]
(6 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Scott Sipprelle (R)


13 - D+21
Albio Sires (D) [Inc]
Hennrietta Dwyer (D)


NEW MEXICO D+2

Governor:
OPEN
Diane Denish (D)
Susana Martinez (R)
[Incumbent: Bill Richardson (D) – Retiring due to term limits.]


U.S. Senate: 2-D
[Not up this cycle: Jeff Bingaman (D) - 2012.]
[Not up this cycle: Tom Udall (D) - 2014.]

U.S. House: 3-D
01 - D+5
Martin Heinrich (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Jonathan Barela (R)


02 - R+6
Harry Teague (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=N)
Steve Pearce (R)


03 - D+7
Ben Ray Lujan (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Tom Mullins (R)



NEW YORK D+10

Governor:
OPEN
Andrew Cuomo (D)
Carl Paladino (R)
[Incumbent: David Paterson (D) - Retiring.]

U.S. Senate: 2-D
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) [Inc]
(Appointed to fill unexpired term of Hillary Clinton (D) [now U.S. Sec. of State], Stimulus=Y, Health Care=Y)
Joseph DioGuardi (R)


Chuck Schumer (D) [Inc]
Jay Townsend (R)

U.S. House: 26-D, 2-R, 1 vacant seat
01 - EVEN
Tim Bishop (D) [Inc]
(4 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Randy Altschuler (R)


02 - D+4
Steve Israel (D) [Inc]
(5 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
John Gomez (R)


03 - R+4
Peter King (R) [Inc]
Howard Kudler (D)

04 - D+6
Carolyn McCarthy (D) [Inc]
(7 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Francis Becker (R)


05 - D+12
Gary Ackerman (D) [Inc]
James Milano (R)

06 - D+36
Gregory Meeks (D) [Inc]
Asher Taub (R)

07 - D+26
Joseph Crowley (D) [Inc]
Kenneth Reynolds (R)

08 - D+22
Jerrold Nadler (D) [Inc]
Susan Kone (R)

09 - D+5
Anthony Weiner (D) [Inc]
(6 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Robert Turner (R)


10 - D+38
Edolphus Towns (D) [Inc]
Diana Muniz (R)

11 - D+38
Yvette Clarke (D) [Inc]
Hugh Carr (R)

12 - D+33
Nydia Velazquez (D) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

13 - R+4
Michael McMahon (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=N)
Michael Grimm (R)


14 - D+26
Carolyn Maloney (D) [Inc]
Ryan Brumberg (R)

15 - D+41
Charles Rangel (D) [Inc]
Michael Faulkner (R)

16 - D+41
Jose Serrano (D) [Inc]
Frank Della Vella (R)

17 - D+18
Eliot Engel (D) [Inc]
Anthony Mele (R)

18 - D+9
Nita Lowey (D) [Inc]
Jim Russell (R)

19 - R+3
John Hall (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y, CPC Member)
Nan Hayworth (R)


20 - R+2
Scott Murphy (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Christopher Gibson (R)


21 - D+6
Paul Tonko (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Theodore Danz (R)


22 - D+6
Maurice Hinchey (D) [Inc]
(9 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y, CPC Member)
George Phillips (R)


23 - R+1
Bill Owens (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Health Care=Y)
Matt Doheny (R)


24 - R+2
Michael Arcuri (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=N)
Richard Hanna (R)


25 - D+3
Dan Maffei (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Ann Marie Buerkle (R)


26 - R+6
Chris Lee (R) [Inc]
Philip Fedele (D)

27 - D+4
Brian Higgins (D) [Inc]
(3 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Leonard Roberto (R)


28 - D+15
Louise Slaughter (D) [Inc]
Jill Rowland (R)

29 - R+5
VACANT
Matthew Zeller (D)
Thomas Reed (R)
[Most Recent Incumbent: Eric Massa (D) - Resigned on March 8, 2010.]



NORTH CAROLINA R+4

Governor:
[Not up this cycle: Beverly Perdue (D) - 2012.]

U.S. Senate: 1-R, 1-D
Richard Burr (R) [Inc]
Elaine Marshall (D)

[Not up this cycle: Kay Hagan (D) - 2014.]

U.S. House: 8-D, 5-R
01 - D+9
G.K. Butterfield (D) [Inc]
Ashley Woolard (R)

02 - R+2
Bob Etheridge (D) [Inc]
(7 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Renee Ellmers (R)


03 - R+16
Walter Jones (R) [Inc]
Johnny Rouse (D)

04 - D+8
David Price (D) [Inc]
(7 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
William Lawson (R)


05 - R+15
Virginia Foxx (R) [Inc]
Billy Kennedy (D)

06 - R+18
Howard Coble (R) [Inc]
Sam Turner (D)

07 - R+5
Mike McIntyre (D) [Inc]
(7 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=N)
Ilario Pantano (R)


08 - R+2
Larry Kissell (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=N)
Harold Johnson (R)


09 - R+11
Sue Myrick (R) [Inc]
Jeff Doctor (D)

10 - R+17
Patrick McHenry (R) [Inc]
Jeff Gregory (D)

11 - R+6
Heath Shuler (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=N, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=N)
Jeff Miller (R)


12 - D+16
Mel Watt (D) [Inc]
Greg Dority (R)

13 - D+5
Brad Miller (D) [Inc]
(4 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
William Randall (R)



NORTH DAKOTA R+10

Governor:
[Not up this cycle: John Hoeven (R) - 2012. Running for U.S. Senate.]

U.S. Senate: 2-D
OPEN
Tracy Potter (D)
John Hoeven (R)
[Incumbent: Byron Dorgan (D) - Retiring.]


[Not up this cycle: Kent Conrad (D) - 2012.]

U.S. House: 1-D
At Large - R+10
Earl Pomeroy (D) [Inc]
(9 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=Y)
Rick Berg (R)



OHIO R+1

Governor:
Ted Strickland (D) [Inc]
John Kasich (R)


U.S. Senate: 1-R, 1-D
OPEN
Rob Portman (R)
Lee Fisher (D)
[Incumbent: George Voinovich (R) - Retiring.]

[Not up this cycle: Sherrod Brown (D) - 2012.]

U.S. House: 10-D, 8-R
01 - D+1
Steve Dreihaus (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Steve Chabot (R)


02 - R+13
Jean Schmidt (R) [Inc]
Surya Yalamanchili (D)

03 - R+5
Mike Turner (R) [Inc]
Joe Roberts (D)

04 - R+15
Jim Jordan (R) [Inc]
Doug Litt (D)

05 - R+9
Bob Latta (R) [Inc]
Caleb Finkenbiner (D)

06 - R+2
Charlie Wilson (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=Y)
Bill Johnson (R)


07 - R+7
Steve Austria (R) [Inc]
Bill Conner (D)

08 - R+14
John Boehner (R) [Inc]
Justin Coussoule (D)

09 - D+10
Marcy Kaptur (D) [Inc]
Rich Iott (R)

10 - D+8
Dennis Kucinich (D) [Inc]
(7 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=Y, CPC Member)
Peter Corrigan (R)


11 - D+32
Marcia Fudge (D) [Inc]
Thomas Pekarek (R)

12 - D+1
Pat Tiberi (R) [Inc]
Paula Brooks (D)

13 - D+5
Betty Sutton (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Tom Ganley (R)


14 - R+3
Steve LaTourette (R) [Inc]
Bill O'Neill (D)

15 - D+1
Mary Jo Kilroy (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Steven Stivers (R)


16 - R+4
John Boccieri (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Jim Renacci (R)


17 - D+12
Tim Ryan (D) [Inc]
Jim Graham (R)

18 - R+7
Zack Space (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=N)
Bob Gibbs (R)



OKLAHOMA R+17

Governor:
OPEN
Jari Askins (D)
Mary Fallin (R)
[Incumbent: Brad Henry (D) - Retiring due to term limits.]


U.S. Senate: 2-R
Tom Coburn (R) [Inc]
Jim Rogers (D)

[Not up this cycle: Jim Inhofe (R) - 2014.]

U.S. House: 4-R, 1-D
01 - R+16
John Sullivan (R) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

02 - R+14
Dan Boren (D) [Inc]
(3 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=N)
Charles Thompson (R)


03 - R+24
Frank Lucas (R) [Inc]
Frankie Robbins (D)

04 - R+18
Tom Cole (R) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

05 - R+13
OPEN
James Lankford (R)
Billy Coyle (D)
[Incumbent: Mary Fallin (R) - Running for Governor.]


OREGON D+4

Governor:
OPEN
John Kitzhaber (D)
Chris Dudley (R)
[Incumbent: Ted Kulongoski (D) - Retiring due to term limits.]


U.S. Senate: 2-D
Ron Wyden (D) [Inc]
Jim Huffman (R)

[Not up this cycle: Jeff Merkley (D) - 2014.]

U.S. House: 4-D, 1-R
01 - D+8
David Wu (D) [Inc]
(6 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Rob Cornilles (R)


02 - R+10
Greg Walden (R) [Inc]
Joyce Segers (D)

03 - D+19
Earl Blumenauer (D) [Inc]
Delia Lopez (R)

04 - D+2
Peter DeFazio (D) [Inc]
(12 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=Y, CPC Member)
Art Robinson (R)


05 - D+1
Kurt Schrader (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Scott Bruun (R)



PENNSYLVANIA D+2

Governor:
OPEN
Dan Onorato (D)
Tom Corbett (R)
[Incumbent: Ed Rendell (D) - Retiring due to term limits.]


U.S. Senate: 2-D
OPEN
Joe Sestak (D)
(As U.S. Rep., PA-07: Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Pat Toomey (R)
[Incumbent: Arlen Specter (D) - Retiring. Switched parties from Republican in 2009; Lost Democrat primary.]


[Not up this cycle: Bob Casey, Jr. (D) - 2012.]

U.S. House: 12-D, 7-R
01 - D+35
Bob Brady (D) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

02 - D+38
Chaka Fattah (D) [Inc]
Rick Hellberg (R)

03 - R+3
Kathy Dahlkemper (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=Y)
Mike Kelly (R)


04 - R+6
Jason Altmire (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=N)
Keith Rothfus (R)


05 - R+9
Glenn Thompson (R) [Inc]
Michael Pipe (D)

06 - D+4
Jim Gerlach (R) [Inc]
Manan Trivedi (D)


07 - D+3
OPEN
Bryan Lentz (D)
Patrick Meehan (R)
[Incumbent: Joe Sestak (D) - Running for U.S. Senate.]


08 - D+2
Patrick Murphy (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Michael Fitzpatrick (R)


09 - R+17
Bill Shuster (R) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

10 - R+8
Chris Carney (D) [Inc]
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=Y)
Thomas Marino (R)


11 - D+4
Paul Kanjorski (D) [Inc]
(13 Terms, Stimulus=N, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Lou Barletta (R)


12 - R+1
Mark Critz (D) [Inc]
(1 Term)
Tim Burns (R)


13 - D+7
Allyson Schwartz (D) [Inc]
(3 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Carson Dee Adcock (R)


14 - D+19
Mike Doyle (D) [Inc]
Melissa Haluszczak (R)

15 - D+2
Charlie Dent (R) [Inc]
John Callahan (D)


16 - R+8
Joe Pitts (R) [Inc]
Lois Herr (D)

17 - R+6
Tim Holden (D) [Inc]
(9 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=N)
Dave Argall (R)


18 - R+6
Tim Murphy (R) [Inc]
Dan Connolly (D)

19 - R+12
Todd Platts (R) [Inc]
Ryan Sanders (D)


RHODE ISLAND D+11

Governor:
OPEN
John Robitaille (R)
Frank Caprio (D)
Lincoln Chafee (I)
[Incumbent: Don Carcieri (R) - Retiring due to term limits.]


U.S. Senate: 2-D
[Not up this cycle: Sheldon Whitehouse (D) - 2012.]
[Not up this cycle: Jack Reed (D) - 2014.]

U.S. House: 2-D
01 - D+13
OPEN
David Cicilline (D)
John Loughlin (R)
[Incumbent: Patrick Kennedy (D) - Retiring.]


02 - D+9
Jim Lengevin (D) [Inc]
Mark Zaccaria (R)


SOUTH CAROLINA R+8

Governor:
OPEN
Nikki Haley (R)
Vincent Sheheen (D)
[Incumbent: Mark Sanford (R) - Retiring due to term limits.]

U.S. Senate: 2-R
Jim DeMint (R) [Inc]
Alvin Greene (D)

[Not up this cycle: Lindsey Graham (R) - 2014.]

U.S. House: 4-R, 2-D
01 - R+10
OPEN
Tim Scott (R)
Ben Frasier (D)
[Incumbent: Henry Brown, Jr. (R) - Retiring.]

02 - R+9
Joe Wilson (R) [Inc]
Rob Miller (D)

03 - R+17
OPEN
Jeff Duncan (R)
Jane Dyer (D)
[Incumbent: J. Gresham Barrett (R) - Retiring. Lost Republican primary for Governor.]

04 - R+15
OPEN
Trey Gowdy (R)
Paul Henry Corden (D)
[Incumbent: Bob Inglis (R) - Lost primary.]

05 - R+7
John Spratt (D) [Inc]
(14 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Mick Mulvaney (R)


06 - D+12
Jim Clyburn (D) [Inc]
Jim Pratt (R)


SOUTH DAKOTA R+9

Governor:
OPEN
Dennis Daugaard (R)
Scott Heidepriem (D)
[Incumbent: Mike Rounds (R) - Retiring due to term limits.]

U.S. Senate: 1-R, 1-D
John Thune (R) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

[Not up this cycle: Tim Johnson (D) - 2014.]

U.S. House: 1-D
At Large - R+9
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) [Inc]
(4 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=N)
Kristi Noem (R)



TENNESSEE R+9

Governor:
OPEN
Mike McWherter (D)
Bill Haslam (R)
[Incumbent: Phil Bredesen (D) - Retiring due to term limits.]


U.S. Senate: 2-R
[Not up this cycle: Bob Corker (R) - 2012.]
[Not up this cycle: Lamar Alexander (R) - 2014.]

U.S. House: 5-D, 4-R
01 - R+21
Phil Roe (R) [Inc]
Michael Clark (D)

02 - R+16
Jimmy Duncan (R) [Inc]
David Hancock (D)

03 - R+13
OPEN
Chuck Fleischmann (R)
John Wolfe (D)
[Incumbent: Zach Wamp (R) - Retiring. Lost Republican primary for Governor.]

04 - R+13
Lincoln Davis (D) [Inc]
(4 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=N)
Scott DesJarlais (R)


05 - D+3
Jim Cooper (D) [Inc]
(4 Terms, Stimulus=N, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
David Hall (R)


06 - R+13
OPEN
Brett Carter (D)
Diane Black (R)
[Incumbent: Bart Gordon (D) - Retiring.]


07 - R+18
Marsha Blackburn (R) [Inc]
Greg Rabidoux (D)

08 - R+6
OPEN
Roy Herron (D)
Stephen Fincher (R)
[Incumbent: John Tanner (D) - Retiring.]


09 - D+23
Steve Cohen (D) [Inc]
Charlotte Bergmann (R)


TEXAS R+10

Governor:
Rick Perry (R) [Inc]
Bill White (D)

U.S. Senate: 2-R
[Not up this cycle: Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) - 2012.]
[Not up this cycle: John Cornyn (R) - 2014.]

U.S. House: 20-R, 12-D
01 - R+21
Louie Gohmert (R) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

02 - R+13
Ted Poe (R) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

03 - R+14
Sam Johnson (R) [Inc]
John Lingenfelder (D)

04 - R+21
Ralph Hall (R) [Inc]
VaLinda Hathcox (D)

05 - R+17
Jeb Hensarling (R) [Inc]
Tom Berry (D)

06 - R+15
Joe Barton (R) [Inc]
David Cozad (D)

07 - R+13
John Culberson (R) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

08 - R+25
Kevin Brady (R) [Inc]
Kent Hargett (D)

09 - D+22
Al Green (D) [Inc]
Steve Mueller (R)

10 - R+10
Michael McCaul (R) [Inc]
Ted Ankrum (D)

11 - R+28
Mike Conaway (R) [Inc]
James Quillian (D)

12 - R+16
Kay Granger (R) [Inc]
Tracey Smith (D)

13 - R+29
Mac Thornberry (R) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

14 - R+18
Ron Paul (R) [Inc]
Robert Pruett (D)

15 - D+3
Ruben Hinojosa (D) [Inc]
(7 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Eddie Zamora


16 - D+10
Silvestre Reyes (D) [Inc]
Tim Besco (R)

17 - R+20
Chet Edwards (D) [Inc]
(10 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=N)
Bill Flores (R)


18 - D+24
Sheila Jackson-Lee (D) [Inc]
John Faulk (R)

19 - R+26
Randy Neugebauer (R) [Inc]
Andy Wilson (D)

20 - D+8
Charlie Gonzalez (D) [Inc]
(6 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Clayton Trotter (R)


21 - R+14
Lamar Smith (R) [Inc]
Lainey Melnick (D)

22 - R+13
Pete Olson (R) [Inc]
Kesha Rogers (D)

23 - R+4
Ciro Rodriguez (D) [Inc]
(7 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=Y)
Quico Canseco (R)


24 - R+11
Kenny Marchant (R) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

25 - D+6
Lloyd Doggett (D) [Inc]
(8 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Donna Campbell (R)


26 - R+13
Michael Burgess (R) [Inc]
Neil Durrance (D)

27 - R+2
Solomon Ortiz (D) [Inc]
(14 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=Y)
Blake Farenthold (R)


28 - EVEN
Henry Cuellar (D) [Inc]
(3 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Bryan Underwood (R)


29 - D+8
Gene Green (D) [Inc]
(9 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Roy Morales (R)


30 - D+27
Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) [Inc]
Stephen Broden (R)

31 - R+14
John Carter (R) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

32 - R+8
Pete Sessions (R) [Inc]
Grier Raggio (D)


UTAH R+20

Governor:
Gary Herbert (R) [Inc]
Peter Corroon (D)

U.S. Senate: 2-R
OPEN
Mike Lee (R)
Sam Granato (D)
[Incumbent: Bob Bennett (R) - Lost at party convention.]

[Not up this cycle: Orrin Hatch (R) - 2012.]

U.S. House: 2-R, 1-D
01 - R+21
Rob Bishop (R) [Inc]
Morgan Bowen (D)

02 - R+15
Jim Matheson (D) [Inc]
(5 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=N)
Morgan Philpot (R)


03 - R+26
Jason Chaffetz (R) [Inc]
Karen Hyer (D)


VERMONT D+13

Governor:
OPEN
Brian Dubie (R)
Peter Shumlin (D)
[Incumbent: Jim Douglas (R) - Retiring.]


U.S. Senate: 1-D, 1-I
Patrick Leahy (D) [Inc]
Len Britton (R)

[Not up this cycle: Bernie Sanders (I) (Dem caucus) - 2012.]

U.S. House: 1-D
At Large - D+13
Peter Welch (D) [Inc]
Paul Beaudry (R)


VIRGINIA R+2

Governor:
[Not up this cycle: Bob McDonnell (R) - 2013. Term-limited.]

U.S. Senate: 2-D
[Not up this cycle: Jim Webb (D) - 2012.]
[Not up this cycle: Mark Warner (D) - 2014.]

U.S. House: 6-D, 5-R
01 - R+7
Rob Wittman (R) [Inc]
Krystal Ball (D)

02 - R+5
Glenn Nye (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=N)
Scott Rigell (R)


03 - D+20
Bobby Scott (D) [Inc]
Chuck Smith (R)

04 - R+4
Randy Forbes (R) [Inc]
Wynne Legrow (D)

05 - R+5
Tom Perriello (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Robert Hurt (R)


06 - R+12
Bob Goodlatte (R) [Inc]
[Unopposed]

07 - R+9
Eric Cantor (R) [Inc]
Rick Waugh (D)

08 - D+16
Jim Moran (D) [Inc]
Patrick Murray (R)

09 - R+11
Rick Boucher (D) [Inc]
(14 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=N)
Morgan Griffith (R)


10 - R+2
Frank Wolf (R) [Inc]
Jeff Barnett (D)

11 - D+2
Gerry Connolly (D) [Inc]
(1 Term, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Keith Fimian (R)



WASHINGTON D+5

Governor:
[Not up this cycle: Christine Gregoire (D) - 2012.]

U.S. Senate: 2-D
Patty Murray (D) [Inc]
(3 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Health Care=Y)
Dino Rossi (R)


[Not up this cycle: Maria Cantwell (D) - 2012.]

U.S. House: 6-D, 3-R
01 - D+9
Jay Inslee (D) [Inc]
James Watkins (R)

02 - D+3
Rick Larsen (D) [Inc]
(5 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
John Koster (R)


03 - EVEN
OPEN
Denny Heck (D)
Jaime Herrera (R)
[Incumbent: Brian Baird (D) - Retiring.]


04 - R+13
Doc Hastings (R) [Inc]
Jay Clough (D)

05 - R+7
Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) [Inc]
Daryl Romeyn (D)

06 - D+5
Norm Dicks (D) [Inc]
(17 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Doug Cloud (R)


07 - D+31
Jim McDermott (D) [Inc]
Bob Jeffers-Schroder (I)

08 - D+3
Dave Reichert (R) [Inc]
Suzan DelBene (D)


09 - D+5
Adam Smith (D) [Inc]
(7 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Dick Muri (R)



WEST VIRGINIA R+8

Governor:
[Not up this cycle: Joe Manchin (D) - 2012. Term-limited. Running for U.S. Senate.]

U.S. Senate: 2-D
OPEN
Joe Manchin (D)
John Raese (R)
[Incumbent: Carte Goodwin (D) - Retiring. Appointed to fill the unexpired term of the late Robert Byrd (D).]


[Not up this cycle: Jay Rockefeller (D) - 2014.]

U.S. House: 2-D, 1-R
01 - R+9
OPEN
Mike Oliverio (D)
David McKinley (R)
[Incumbent: Alan Mollohan (D) - Lost primary.]


02 - R+8
Shelley Moore Capito (R) [Inc]
Virginia Lynch Graf (D)

03 - R+6
Nick Rahall (D) [Inc]
(17 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=N, Health Care=Y)
Elliott Maynard (R)



WISCONSIN D+2

Governor:
OPEN
Tom Barrett (D)
Scott Walker (R)
[Incumbent: Jim Doyle (D) - Retiring.]


U.S. Senate: 2-D
Russ Feingold (D) [Inc]
(3 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Health Care=Y)
Ron Johnson (R)


[Not up this cycle: Herb Kohl (D) - 2012.]

U.S. House: 5-D, 3-R
01 - R+2
Paul Ryan (R) [Inc]
John Heckenlively (D)

02 - D+15
Tammy Baldwin (D) [Inc]
Chad Lee (R)

03 - D+4
Ron Kind (D) [Inc]
(7 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Dan Kapanke (R)


04 - D+22
Gwen Moore (D) [Inc]
Dan Sebring (R)

05 - R+12
Jim Sensenbrenner (R) [Inc]
Todd Kolosso (D)

06 - R+4
Tom Petri (R) [Inc]
Joseph Kallas (D)

07 - D+3
OPEN
Julie Lassa (D)
Sean Duffy (R)
[Incumbent: David Obey (D) - Retiring.]


08 - R+2
Steve Kagen (D)
(2 Terms, Stimulus=Y, Cap & Trade=Y, Health Care=Y)
Reid Ribble (R)



WYOMING R+20

Governor:
OPEN
Leslie Petersen (D)
Matt Mead (R)
[Incumbent: Dave Freudenthal (D) - Retiring due to term limits.]


U.S. Senate: 2-R
[Not up this cycle: John Barrasso (R) - 2012.]
[Not up this cycle: Mike Enzi (R) - 2014.]

U.S. House: 1-R
At Large - R+20
Cynthia Lummis (R) [Inc]
David Wendt (D)


Now, charge up your Humpbots, order your Ace of Spades brand pudding cups by the gross, GET THE VOTE OUT and let the Republican Tsunami commence!!!


Additional resources that you may find of interest:

The Cook Political Report
Google Election Maps
Real Clear Politics
Rasmussen Reports
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball
The Rothenberg Political Report
CQ Politics
NY Times Politics
Jay Cost
Jim Geraghty
Nate Silver
Dick Morris
Election Projection
The Hedgehog Report
Coldhearted Truth
Patrick Ishmael