Tuesday, November 16, 2004

The Moonbat Song

(sung to the tune of "Moon Shadow" by Cat Stevens)

The left is being swallowed by the Moonbats
Moonbats Moonbats
Seething and a-frothing little Moonbats
Moonbats Moonbats

And ever since they lost their heads
Forgot to swallow all their meds
And ever since they lost their heads
We-de-de-de-de, we-de-de-de
They just can't control their rage

And if they ever lost their mouths
Their ugly bilge would still pour out
And if they ever lost their mouths
We-de-de-de-de, we-de-de-de
They'd still type their insane screeds

The left is being swallowed by the Moonbats
Moonbats Moonbats
Seething and a-frothing little Moonbats
Moonbats Moonbats

And if you ever lose your mind
And stick your head up your behind
And if you ever lose your mind
We-de-de-de-de, we-de-de-de
You, too, can be one of them

And when they lost election night
And started howling at the right
And when they lost election night
We-de-de-de-de, we-de-de-de
They called everyone rude names

Didn't think they could lose it
They claim the result's a lie
Didn't think they would lose it
Now all they can do is cry

The left is being swallowed by the Moonbats
Moonbats Moonbats
Seething and a-frothing little Moonbats
Moonbats Moonbats
Moonbats Moonbats
Moonbats Moonbats

The Great Moonbat Meltdown of 2004

Let me begin by stating unequivocally that I do not, for one moment, believe that all, or even most, Democrats, Liberals or Kerry voters in general are of the same mindset of intolerance and seething vitriolic rage that infects those among them whose activities I am about to chronicle. I do most emphatically believe, however, that these types are becoming all-too-common within their ranks, and that a very real danger exists that we are soon going to see their blinding ideological hatred for everyone and everything they disagree with develop into something truly ugly, violent and destructive if these people are not forced to wake up and get a grip on reality!

Let us examine now, in depth, the Great Moonbat Meltdown of 2004 in the wake of the election:


The victimization culture that the far left just seems to feed off, continues.

I would venture to guess that pretty much anyone reading this has faced big disappointments at times in their lives. Sometimes profound disappointments. Sometimes related to elections, even Presidential elections (for me, it was Clinton winning in 1992 & 1996). Yet, how many of us were so distraught over these disappointments we became unable to function, to the point where we needed professional therapy to get over it?

Enter the Moonbats!

Really now, what is a victim nowadays without some sort of concocted medical condition to blame it all on? Voila! Introducing "P.E.S.T." or Post-Election Selection Trauma! And now, we have miraculous recovery stories to marvel over as the gullible and insecure scream out, "Me, too!" "I must be afflicted, also!" "Will my HMO cover this?" "Can I get paid leave from work until I am fully recovered?" "Who can I sue?" "Where is my attorney's phone number?"

People, not to be cold here, but come on, already! It's an election. Your guy lost. There will be another election in four years. In the meantime, believe me, America WILL survive! And so will you, if you let yourself! Buck it up!

Do you really want to end up having a meltdown over an election like Hollywood prima donna Vincent D'Onfrio of "Law & Order: Criminal Intent", "Men In Black" and "Full Metal Jacket" fame? To quote Gunnery Sergeant Hartman: "What is your major malfunction, numbnuts?" [WARNING - RAW LANGUAGE ALERT!]


Whooo, boy! The venom that is being spit out all over the good people of the Red States and everyone else who wasn't "intelligent" enough to vote for John Kerry is vile, potent and in plentiful supply!

We should have seen this one coming! After all, some lovely Democrats in Tennessee produced that wonderfully sensitive flyer in the weeks before the election to let us all know that:
"Voting for Bush Is Like Running In The Special Olympics - Even If You Win, You're Still Retarded!"

Columnist Jane Smiley wants all of the Kerry supporters out there to understand the true extent of the ignorance of Bush voters.

The British publication "The Daily Mirror" wanted to know how so many Americans could be "so DUMB" as to re-elect Mr. Bush.

Graphic designer Nick Jehlen of Madison, Wisconsin has launched a new website to let all you rednecks down in Dixieland know just what he thinks of y'all! Be sure to send him a "howdy" so he knows what you think of him, too! [WARNING - RAW LANGUAGE ALERT!]

Some guy named Tim Price posted a screed on a site called The Chattanoogan.com to let all us Bushies know that "America has lost this election" and we are "lukewarm fascists" who were bribed and duped by the "imbecile" we elected.

And then there are these wonderful examples of America's best and brightest, marching through the streets of San Francisco, pouting in the aftermath of the election. Their mothers should be SO proud! [WARNING - RAW LANGUAGE ALERT!]

Now, you too can apologize to the whole wide world for the ignorance of so many of your fellow Americans, thanks to the self-loathing apologists at sorryeverybody.com. Quick, someone let me know if my voting for Bush makes me guilty of crimes against humanity!

If you'd like, you can make up your own "Moonbat Rant" with help from Sean Gleeson's "Autorantic Virtual Moonbat."


It seems there are quite a few folks out there among the tin-foil head-gear crowd who are actually pushing this notion. The loony-left message boards are abuzz with whispers and moans about how machines were tampered with, voters were disenfranchised, etc. The crux of their arguments tend to revolve around the notion that if the exit polls said Kerry should have won, then they just simply could not have been wrong! Oh, dear God! I'll let you take that one at face value. Then, if you believe in this theory, please contact me. I have some farmland in the Florida Everglades I'd just love to talk to you about!

The problem here is that a so-called "journalist", namely ex-ESPN smarmy sports-guy and current MSNBC "Kool-Aid" drinker Keith Olbermann, is actually pushing this story, merit or no merit! Gee, Keith, do you think you ought to give up on this angle yet? Or does it not strike you as odd that such bastions of Conservative opinion as ABC News, The New York Times and the head of the Kerry campaign's legal team are among those who are now debunking this load of crap?

Pssst! Hey, Keith. I think the tin-foil layer beneath your toupé may be a tad tight there, buddy. You might want to have the little grey men check it for you when they beam you up for your nightly anal probe!

Ah, but Mr. Olbermann is not alone! Lefty writer and fellow tin-foil hatter Greg Palast has joined the chorus of idiots. And the George Soros backed anti-Bush group MoveOn.org wants to launch a Congressional investigation!

Heck, we now have the failed Presidential candidates from the Green and Libertarian parties asking for Ohio recounts, for crying out loud! Let me clue you in fellows, you didn't even come CLOSE to winning Ohio... OR ANY OTHER STATE!!! It couldn't be that they are doing super-secret undercover work for the Democrats by doing this, could it? Giving the Kerry camp plausible deniability and filtering them from any backlash over an ugly recount mess by fronting for them? Nyah! Not a chance!

But, then again, one has to wonder what the heck Ralph Nader is doing going after a recount in New Hampshire, where Kerry beat Bush by about 1%, or just over 9,000 votes! Nader seems to think Kerry should have won by more!

This sort of paranoid conspiracy rhetoric can, quite frankly, be very dangerous if not nipped in the bud quickly! It is time for those who did not support the President's re-election to gracefully accept defeat and, as their favorite 527's name suggests, MoveOn!


So, you say you no longer feel welcome in your homeland? Too conservative, backward and stupid for the likes of you? Maybe you can flee to some beautiful Socialist Utopia!

How about our nearest and dearest neighbor to the North, Canada, eh? Word has it this is a popular choice among the disaffected American Moonbat population, so be prepared to wait in line.

Or maybe you'd prefer to look into more options?

Buh-bye, now! Don't let the border hit you on the a** on the way out!


It is hard to take these people seriously, and most are likely just blowing off steam, but you get the feeling there are some who would like to see this secession thing through, including MSNBC analyst Lawrence "You Creepy Lying Liar" O'Donnell, so let's take a moment to address the issue, shall we?

We now know who John Edwards was talking to, and about, when he came up with that whole "Two Americas" thing. It seems many of the Liberals in the Blue States want to secede from those they consider to be brain-dead, homophobic, bible-thumping, rednecked hicks in the Red States. Oh, that ought to teach 'em! The Blue States have all the brains and culture, the finest higher education institutions, all of the premier artists and intellectuals, the lion's share of business savvy and money, they tell us. Okay...

Have you ever stopped to consider little things like the country's food supply, energy and raw materials. Most of THAT comes from the Red States, geniuses! You know... that big, useless red clump of "fly-over" country in the middle of the damned map! Tell me, just how exactly would California get much of its fresh water or its power without Hoover Dam? Or are the Red State "in-breds" of Arizona and Nevada just supposed to keep it all flowing for you after La-La Land jumps off the map and leaves them in the lurch? Fat chance! You think it's expensive NOW?

And get this straight, losers: Illinois will secede from the Union OVER MY DEAD BODY! I'm pretty certain, however, that such a sacrifice will never be necessary. In fact, I'm absolutely certain. Here's why: The vast majority of the people of the State of Illinois, a "Midwestern values" kind of place, if ever there was one, would never go along with your plans - including many of those who may have, for whatever misguided reason, voted for John Kerry and/or Al Gore in the last two elections! Trust me, I know these people. I've lived with them all of my life! Same goes for Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania, "Big Ten" states all! Kerry won all of those by bare majorities in this last election. Make the topic secession, and how many votes do you think you'll get? You WERE planning on letting us VOTE before you dragged us all with you, weren't you??? Or maybe not, since you think it's all a big fix anyway! (Come to think of it, why didn't Karl Rove manage to steal all of THESE states while he was at it?)

Or maybe you were thinking Civil War II instead? It ain't going to happen, people! Are you telling me the "No blood for oil"/"Not in my name"/"Peace at any price"/"Bush lied, kids died" crowd is going to start an ARMED REBELLION??? Against the gun-loving, card carrying members of the NRA and "leathernecks" and "jarheads" in the "America, love it or leave it" Red States and rural areas of their own Blue States? How many of these aging hippies even own a handgun, much less a shotgun, rifle or semi-automatic? How many of them have ever even been in a fist-fight for crying out loud? Honestly, who would you bet your money on? Or more importantly, your life?

It's simple: the VAST majority of Americans want to go on being Americans. In Red States AND in Blue States! You might garner limited support for your hair-brained scheme to split this country apart from some small pockets of left-wing lunatics in certain Ultra-Liberal metro areas, like the San Francisco Bay area, Los Angeles, Seattle, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore and D.C. or some collegiate communities like Madison or Berkeley, but it'll never fly!

Have you ever even looked at this county-by-county election map? Most of the Blue States are not exactly a solid blue! I would dare to say not a single state in this Union would secede if it were put to a vote, even if only a simple bare majority were needed to approve such a thing! Get over yourselves!


Okay, from here on out, this article is no longer meant to be funny. To demonstrate to you that some of these loons are truly dangerous, I present some shameful examples of violence and reprehensible behavior.

First, please take a look at some of the goings-on in the run-up to the election. If you are unaware of the rash of violence that preceded this election, I suggest you look at the list compiled by Daniel Hyams at his blog, NoTinfoil Hats Allowed. It is really quite disturbing!

And don't think it ends there! Since the election we have more reports of vandalism at GOP offices in North Carolina and Chicago, a Colorado teacher who kicked a student for wearing a College Republicans sweatshirt and an assault with a bat on a Bush supporter by three angry Kerry supporters at a Minnesota high school.

And there are others out there who are just looking for trouble! Check out this nutball, courtesy of SondraK.com. Can you imagine some idiot placing a classified ad for a Bush supporter he can beat up?

And from the real lunatic fringe, comes this thread on the Bill Maher discussion board asking the "rhetorical" question: "Shooting Republicans ethical? Discuss." Our threadmaster, calling himself "moulty," even fantasizes about a bomb going off during Bush's victory speech after the election, wiping out everyone on the stage, as well as Mary Matalin, then wishes for a truck to run over Karen Hughes! Be warned, many of the idiots replying on this thread are just as bad, or worse! I can't help but wonder if the FBI or Secret Service would care to pay any of these folks a little visit? [WARNING - RAW LANGUAGE ALERT!]

Finally, and perhaps most disturbingly of all, the New York Times' Dean E. Murphy recently published a column that seems to be asking God to kill President Bush! And they call us religious whackos!

When will this madness stop? Will the left continue to be consumed by their hatred and loathing until real tragedy strikes? Or maybe just until they get trounced even worse in future elections? Perhaps they will finally grow the f**k up and stop throwing childish temper tantrums, hurling insults, making ludicrous accusations and idiotic suggestions and, most importantly, threatening and intimidating people! Time will tell... but I'm not holding my breath!

Hat tips all around: Everyone at (in alphabetical order) Ace of Spades, Barking Moonbat Early Warning System, The Cool Blue Blog, Dean's World, Free Republic, Hog on Ice, Instapundit, Little Green Footballs, No Tin Foil Hats Allowed, PoliPundit, Power Line, Pull on Superman's Cape, Red State, Sean Gleeson, Sondra K.com and The Volokh Conspiracy.

Friday, November 12, 2004

60 Million...and Counting!

For the last week and a half, since President Bush's re-election, I have remained more or less silent here, but I have been keeping an eye on the world-at-large nonetheless. The Great Moonbat Meltdown of 2004 has been going on in its completely predictable manner and I will try to document some of it for you soon. In the meantime, check this out, courtesy of Jayson Javitz at my favorite blog, PoliPundit:


No, not Vincent D’Onofrio’s psychotherapy tab.

That’s the total number of ballots, as of today’s date, that were cast in favor of President re-elect George W. Bush.

-- Jayson

Wow! Way to go, W!!! I'll bet you the MSM won’t be giving out that updated total in any high-profile manner anytime soon (or ever)!

No mandate, huh? Illegitamate Presidency, huh? Jeez, these losers just do not get it! Still, the “Bush stole the election” drumbeat grows louder at the left fringe. Keep pounding those drums guys:

Get your friends from the MSM to keep reporting on this stolen election angle - dig deep!

File a thousand class action lawsuits to try to overturn the election results!

Keep on whining and calling all Bush voters idiots and retards (all 60 million+ of us)!

Keep encouraging Michael Moore to produce that F9/11 sequel!

Make certain to move further and further to the left and get louder and angrier and more in America’s face every step of the way!

Talk openly about secession!

Insist the President has no mandate and pressure the Democrats in the Senate and House to work to block the President’s agenda and every nominee he sends up to any court or government post anywhere!

Continue to lecture us all on the merits of gay marriage, partial-birth abortion, higher taxes, bigger government, more entitlement programs, the Kyoto Treaty, the World Court, the UN, France & Germany, the “global test” we need to pass before we take action to defend ourselves, etc., etc., etc.!

Finally, PLEASE nominate another Northeastern Liberal for President next time (like, say, Hillary Clinton)!

With all of your continued frenzied efforts to turn off voters to the Democratic Party, and wingnut leftwing moonbats like yourselves, we’ll top the 65,000,000 mark in 2008! Hell, 70,000,000 might not be out of the question! And we can almost certainly break the 60 GOP Senator mark by then, too!

Go, lefties, go!

Wednesday, November 03, 2004

Election 2004 Results

It is time to review the results of yesterday's general election and compare them to my earlier predictions. All-in-all, I must say I didn't do too badly. My one and only real big miss was the margin of Bush's victory over Kerry. Up until the last few days, I had been much more cautious about tossing too many Gore states over into the President's column, but I allowed my enthusiasm and optimism to cloud my judgment. Lesson learned. In the future, I will make predictions more with my head than with my gut feelings.

My feelings about the polls being way off were both right and wrong. Many of the polls were, in fact, dreadfully wrong (Zogby, American Research Group and The L.A. Times, as well as the most-recent batches from CNN/USA Today/Gallup and Fox News/Opinion Dynamics to name a few), but there were others that had a pretty good read on the race (e.g. Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon). I guess I know who I'll pay closer attention to next time, and who I will continue to feel quite right to ignore.

My Senate predictions turned out pretty darned good. I missed only one call in the Senate out of nine competitive races (88.9% efficiency). Not bad! The only reason I missed the other one (picking Coors over Salazar) was due to my mistrust in the polls again, especially considering their track record in the last Colorado Senate race as I explained in my write-up. Still, a terrific night for the GOP in the Senate! Bye-bye, Mr. Daschle, don't let the door hit you in the posterior on the way out!

As for the House, I didn't too badly there either. Only two races not included in the "Ones to Watch" section were even close (I still had the winners of both called correctly) and overall, I missed on only four picks, all of them rated as tossups from the get-go. The GOP gained seats here also, as expected. What a night!

I have to say, however, that the biggest losers last night were not any of the candidates, but the mainstream media and their laughable exit-polling system! Early in the afternoon, some of the results of these "exit polls" were being leaked, posted on the Internet and hyped by left-wing bloggers as proof-positive of an impeding Kerry landslide! What a bunch of poor, delusional souls! Many in the media, who have free access to these polls and had come to rely on them over the years (inspite of recent evidence that they were suspect at best), began to change their attitudes throughout the course of the afternoon and early evening, before the polls had even closed in a single state, in a way that betrayed both their partisan bent and what they think they knew was going on. No wonder they couldn't call any of the Bush states without waiting for massive amounts of actual returns to come in! According to their precious polling data, Bush was going to lose an untold number of the states he ended up winning by comfortable margins!

To watch so many of these "impartial" liberal hacks on television have those smug smiles wiped off their faces as the evening wore on and reality Bush-whacked them up-side their swelled heads was too beautiful for words! Some of them really seemed as if they might cry and others started making wildly goofy statements as they all sat there stunned by this most-unwelcomed turn of events! It seems the actual Will-of-the-People did not match the growing expectations that they had suceeded in their relentless efforts to hatchet-job a much hated Republican President into an early retirement! I told you watching the mainstream media meltdown Tuesday was going to be fun, and they set themselves up for it all the more wonderfully with their pathetic polls! Maybe they've learned a valuable lesson here about counting their chickens before they've hatched, or about becoming too emotionally involved and developing a vested interest in a process in which they are supposed to be impartial observers, or about letting actual vote counts decide the outcome of elections. Maybe, but somehow I doubt it! Oh, well, serves them right!

What follows are the (somewhat preliminary) results of some of the more interesting races from this election...

President of the United States:
George W. Bush (R) 51% over John F. Kerry (D) 48%

Electoral College Votes*:
Bush 274 over Kerry 252
(12 Electoral Votes unresolved, all leaning Bush)

Bush States (29):

Kerry States (19 + DC):
CA, CT, DE, HI*, IL, ME*, MD, MA, MI*, MN*, NH*, NJ*, NY, OR, PA*, RI, VT, WA, WI*, DC

States Unresolved - Leaning Bush (2):

U.S. Senate: GOP +4*
55 Republicans, 44 Democrats, 1 Independent (leans Democrat)

Republican Holds:
AK: Murkowski (R) 49% over Knowles (D) 45%
KY: Bunning (R) 51% over Mongiardo (D) 49%
OK [Open-R]: Coburn (R) 53% over Carson (D) 41%

Republican Pickups:
FL [Open-D]: Martinez (R) 50% over Castor (D) 48%
GA [Open-D]: Isakson (R) 58% over Majette (D) 40%
LA [Open-D]: Vitter (R) 51% over John (D) 29%
NC [Open-D]: Burr (R) 52% over Bowles (D) 47%
SC [Open-D]: DeMint (R) 54% over Tenenbaum (D) 44%
SD: Thune (R) 51% over Daschle (D) 49%

Democrat Holds:
WA: Murray (D) 55% over Nethercutt (D) 43%
WI: Feingold (D) 56% over Michels (R) 44%

Democrat Pickups:
CO [Open-R]*: Salazar (D) 51% over Coors (R) 47%
IL [Open-R]: Obama (D) 70% over Keyes (R) 27%

U.S. House of Representatives: GOP +4*
231 Republicans, 200 Democrats, 1 Independent (leans Dem)

(3 races remain unresolved)

Republican Holds:
CT-02: Simmons (R) 54% over Sullivan (D) 46%
CT-04: Shays (R) 52% over Farrell (D) 48%
NE-01 [Open-R]: Fortenberry (R) 54% over Connealy (D) 43%
NC-11: Taylor (R) 55% over Keever (D) 45%
**PA-06: Gerlach (R) 51% over Murphy (D) 49%
TX-19: Neugebauer (R) 58% over Stenholm (D) 40%
TX-32: Sessions (R) 54% over Frost (D) 44%
VA-02 [Open-R]: Drake (R) 55% over Ashe (D) 45%
WA-08 [Open-R]: Reichert (R) 51% over Ross (D) 47%

Republican Pickups:
IN-09*: Sodrel (R) 49% over Hill (D) 49% (1,365 vote margin)
KY-04 [Open-D]: Davis (R) 54% over Clooney (D) 44%
TX-01: Gohmert (R) 61% over Sandlin (D) 38%
TX-02 [Open-D]: Poe (R) 55% over Lampson (D) 43%
TX-10 [Open-D]: McCaul (R) 84% over Fritsche (L) 16%
TX-11 [Open-D]: Conaway (R) 77% over Raasch (D) 22%
TX-24 [Open-D]: Marchant (R) 64% over Page (D) 34%

Democrat Holds:
CA-20 [Open-D]: Costa (D) 54% over Ashburn (R) 46%
IA-03: Boswell (D) 55% over Thompson (R) 45%
**MO-03 [Open-D]: Carnahan (D) 53% over Federer (R) 45%
MO-05 [Open-D]: Cleaver (D) 55% over Patterson (R) 42%
SD at large: Herseth (D) 53% over Diedrich (R) 46%
TX-17 [Open-D]*: Edwards (D) 51% over Wohlgemuth (R) 48%

Democrat Pickups:
CO-03 [Open-R]: Salazar (D) 51% over Walcher(R) 46%
GA-12*: Barrow (D) 52% over Burns (R) 48%
IL-08*: Bean (D) 52% over Crane (R) 48%

Unresolved (Likely Democrat Pickup):
NY-27 [Open-R]*: Higgins (D) 51% leads Naples (R) 49% (99% Rptg)

Run-off Elections (Dec. 4):
LA-03 [Open-R]: Tauzin III (R) favored over Melancon (D)
LA-07 [Open-D]: Mount (D) versus Boustany (R) - Tossup

*Prediction was incorrect.
**Closer than anticipated.

As predicted, the Colorado Electoral Votes will remain winner-take-all and the Defense of Marriage provision passed everywhere it was voted on. Also of note, Florida voters decided it would be a good idea to make it so that their minor daughters could not seek abortions without parental notification except in rare and extreme cases. Go figure!

Colorado - Electoral Vote Reallocation:
Yes 34%, No 66%

Florida - Parental Notification Amendment:
Yes 65%, No 35%

Same-Sex Marriage Bans:
AR: Yes 75%, No 25%
GA: Yes 76%, No 24%
KY: Yes 75%, No 25%
MI: Yes 59%, No 41%
MS: Yes 86%, No 14%
MT: Yes 67%, No 33%
ND: Yes 73%, No 27%
OH: Yes 62%, No 38%
OK: Yes 76%, No 24%
OR: Yes 57%, No 43%
UT: Yes 66%, No 34%

Finally, a gold-star and a tip-of-the-cap to President Elect.org for the best estimate on the results of the Presidential race! If the current results hold up, they hit the Electoral College right on the nose, calling every state correctly! Bravo!

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

The Pundits Weigh In

The following are some of the projections offered regarding the Presidential Election from many of the Internet's most popular resources:

Real Clear Politics:
National Polling Avg: Bush 48.9%, Kerry 47.4%, Nader 0.9%
Bush Job Approval at 49.5%
Electoral College: Bush 227, Kerry 203, Tossup 108

The Horserace Blog:
Results Based on Samples from Nine National Polling Firms:
Bush 49.02%, Kerry 46.69%, MOE +/-0.85%
Confidence of a Bush lead is 99.999%

Rasmussen Reports:
Bush 50.2%, Kerry 48.5%, Other 1.3%
Bush Job Approval at 52%
Electoral College: Bush 222, Kerry 186, Tossup 130

Campaigns and Elections Magazine Campaignline:
Kerry over Bush 50.1% chance
Electoral College: Kerry 242, Bush 227, Tossup 69

Daly Thoughts:
Bush 50.5%, Kerry 48.5%
Electoral College: Bush 280, Kerry 258

Coldhearted Truth:
Electoral College: Bush 296, Kerry 242

The Hedgehog Report:
Bush 50.0%, Kerry 48.9%, Nader 0.7%, Badnarik 0.4%
Electoral College: Bush 294, Kerry 244

Election Projection.com:
Bush 49.4%, Kerry 48.7%
Electoral College: Bush 289, Kerry 249

Sabato's Crystal Ball:
Electoral College: Bush 269, Kerry 269

President Elect.org:
Electoral College: Bush 286, Kerry 252

Slate Magazine's Election Scorecard:
Electoral College: Bush 269, Kerry 269

Electoral College: Kerry 281, Bush 257

Race 2004.net:*
Electoral College: Bush 296, Kerry 242
Or is it? Kerry 311, Bush 227

*Note: First figure is official prediction per website methodology, second is Site Manager's own personal pick.

Federal Review Composite Poll:
Bush 50.5%, 48.5%
Electoral College: Bush 296, Kerry 242

An Appeal from America's Mayor

Last week, I signed up for the Republican Party's 72-hour GOTV effort. While I was disappointed that they did not conatct me to take me up on my offer to volunteer, I was not altogether surprised due to the fact that I reside in the State of Illinois, where the races for President and U.S. Senate are not expected to be close or to go in the direction I, or they, would like to see. My GOP Congresswoman is expected to easily win re-election.

I did receive the following letter, however, in my e-mail box today. It is something I would like to share with you here...

On September 11, our nation faced the worst attack in our history.

On that day, we had to confront reality. Our people were brave in their response.

At the time, we believed we would be attacked many more times that day and in the days that followed. Spontaneously, I grabbed the arm of then Police Commissioner Bernard Kerik and said to Bernie, "Thank God George Bush is our President." I've been saying that every day since.

We needed George Bush then; we need him now; and we need him for four more years!

President Bush is making certain that we are combating terrorism at the source, beyond our shores, so we can reduce the risk of having to confront it in our streets at home.

John Kerry's record of inconsistent positions on combating terrorism gives us no confidence he'll pursue such a determined course.

Terrorism did not start on September 11, 2001. It had been festering for many years.

President Bush will not submit America to a "global test" from other countries that seek to dissuade us from what is necessary for our defense.

Under President Bush, America will lead rather than follow.

President Bush is the leader we need for the next four years because he sees beyond today and tomorrow. He has a vision of a peaceful Middle East and, therefore, a safer world.

And together we have a responsibility to do all we can to give President Bush four more years to continue winning the War on Terror and making the world safer.

Talk to your family, your friends, your coworkers and your neighbors. Make sure they understand the dramatic contrast between President Bush and Senator Kerry.

And make sure your fellow Americans understand the power of their vote on November 2nd--and proudly tell them that, like me, you'll be voting for George W. Bush for four more years!


Rudy Giuliani

Note: I have edited the above letter to correct two small syntax errors which in no way effected the context or meaning of the letter.

I have already voted today. As you may have been able to surmise, I cast my vote for President George W. Bush.

If you have not voted yet, please do so while you still can. Many brave men and women have died to give you that right. They no longer have a voice, so they are counting on you to see to it that our future is as great as our past. Do not let them down!

I spoke to one of the judges at the polling place here in my heavily Republican county. He reports that turnout has been higher than usual, which is a very good sign for our side.

I have done my part. All I can do now is sit back, relax, pray and hope as I wait for the returns to come in. Until then, God bless you all and God bless the United States of America, the brave members of our Armed Forces who have placed themselves in harm's way to protect our freedoms and President George W. Bush!


If you have already voted when you read this, thank you for helping to make Democracy work.

If you have not yet voted, and it is not too late to do so, please tear yourself away from the computer and do so as soon as possible. It does not take very long, but there is likely to be nothing you will do today nearly so important. It is more than just a right, it is a responsibility. The Blogosphere will be here when you get back.

Thank you. God bless you, and God bless the United States of America!

Monday, November 01, 2004

Election 2004 Predictions

President of the United States:
I am about to go out on a limb here, folks. Call me crazy, but I have a gut feeling this election is not as close as the mainstream media would have us all believe. Of all the predictions that follow, I am least confident about predicting New Jersey and Maine Congressional District 2 for President Bush. It is outside the mainstream thinking to say the least, but I expect plenty of surprises for the pundits and I'm going to go with my gut on this one! The rest, believe it or not, I am quite comfortable with, including the House and Senate calls. So here goes nothing...

Bush 53% Kerry 46% Nader + Others 1%
Electoral College: Bush wins 368 -170

(or 352-186 w/o NJ & ME CD #2)

Electoral College Breakdown:

Safe Bush States:

AL-9, AK-3, AZ-10, GA-15, ID-4, IN-11, KS-6, KY-8, LA-9, MS-6, MT-3, NE-5, NC-15, ND-3, OK-7, SC-8, SD-3, TN-11, TX-34, UT-5, VA-13, WY-3

Bush "Red-State" Battleground Victories:
AR-6, CO-9, FL-27, MO-11, NV-5, NH-4, OH-20, WV-5

Bush "Blue-State" Battleground Victories:
HI-4, IA-7, ME (CD #2)-1, MI-17, MN-10, NJ-15, NM-5, PA-21, WI-10

Safe Kerry States:
CA-55, CT-7, DE-3, IL-21, MD-10, MA-12, NY-31, RI-4, VT-3, DC-3

Kerry "Blue-State" Battleground Victories:
ME (at large)-2, ME (CD #1)-1, OR-7, WA-11

Kerry "Red-State" Battleground Victories:

Notes: Colorado Amendment 36, which proposes allocating the state's 9 Electoral Votes based upon the percentage of the statewide popular vote, rather than winner-take-all, is headed for a sound defeat based on most recent polling. Two states, Maine and Nebraska, presently allocate their Electoral Votes in the following manner: the winner of the popular vote in each Congressional District gets 1 Electoral Vote for that Congressional District and the winner of the statewide popular vote gets 2 additional Electoral Votes. They are the only states not to have a winner-take-all allocation of these votes.

U.S. Senate: GOP +5
56 Republicans, 43 Democrats, 1 Independent (leans Democrat)

The Republicans now have the advantage in all the close Senate races. Sen. Lisa Murkowski will be in a close fight due to a nepotism backlash, but Bush should carry her home in heavily Republican Alaska, where polls close late and Democratic turnout could fall off if things go as I suspect they might earlier in the evening.

Late polls in Colorado had Republican Sen. Wayne Allard trailing going into the 2002 Election, but he won by 5% without any Presidential coat-tails at the top of the ticket! Pete Coors, likewise, finds himself close but trailing in the polls. Again, Bush brings a Republican Senatorial Candidate home in a "red" state, where polls tend to have deflated Republican numbers. (The question here for pollsters is: why?)

Florida polls show a tossup, but I think former HUD Sec. Mel Martinez wins with enough of a Hispanic voter edge plus the Bush factor.

Rep. David Vitter is close to the magic 50% mark in Louisiana needed to avoid a run-off. With plenty of undecided voters left, he only needs a small percentage to break for him to become the first Republican Senator from Louisiana since Reconstruction, and should pull it off!

Sen. Jim Bunning's behavior got a tad-bit bizarre for awhile and tightened up the race in "red" Kentucky, but he has never trailed, so he should survive pretty easily.

Rep. Tom Coburn in Oklahoma and Rep. Jim DeMint in South Carolina have bounced back nicely of late from early bouts of foot-in-mouth disease and should win these "red" states without much more trouble.

Rep. Richard Burr trailed early in North Carolina, but the state is too conservative to elect former Clinton aide "Irksome" Erskine Bowles anyway. He has closed the gap and pulled slightly ahead of late. Look for him to complete the comeback with an assist from Bush's comfortable North Carolina win.

Best of all, say bye-bye to America's least-favorite obstructionist, Soon-to-Be-Ex-Senator Tom Daschle! Former U.S. Rep. Jim Thune has all the momentum and from what I've been reading lately, this one is all but over! However, it should be noted that Sen. Daschle is unlikely to go quietly, and the state has seen some "peculiarities" in the past, particularly on Native-American Reservations. If this is close, it could get REAL ugly before it is all over.

Elsewhere, Georgia (Democrat to Republican) and Illinois (Republican to Democrat) were both destined to swap hands long ago. Republicans had hopes in Washington and Wisconsin that just never materialized, but both should be somewhat closer on Election Night than the last polls will show.

Senate Breakdown:

Safe Republican Seats:


Republican Holds:
AK: Murkowski (R) over Knowles (D)
CO [Open-R]: Coors (R) over Salazar (D)
KY: Bunning (R) over Mongiardo (D)
OK [Open-R]: Coburn (R) over Carson (D)

Republican Pick-Ups:
FL [Open-D]: Martinez (R) over Castor (D)
GA [Open-D]: Isakson (R) over Majette (D)
LA [Open-D]: Vitter (R) over John (D), Kennedy (D) [No run-off]
NC [Open-D]: Burr (R) over Bowles (D)
SC [Open-D]: DeMint (R) over Tenenbaum (D)
SD: Thune (R) over Daschle (D)

Safe Democrat Seats:

Democrat Holds:
WA: Murray (D) over Nethercutt (R)
WI: Feingold (D) over Michels (R)

Democrat Pick-Ups:
IL [Open-R]: Obama (D) over Keyes (R)

U.S. House of Representatives: GOP +6
234 Republicans, 198 Democrats, 1 Independent (leans Dem)

(2 open Louisiana seats, 1 currently Republican and 1 currently Democrat, to be decided later by run-offs*)

Races of Note:
The first set are the barn-burners that may go either way. I took my best shot, but, obviously, it much harder to call U.S. House races because there are so many of them and so little information to be culled about which candidate has the edge. As always, incumbents are considered to have a built-in advantage, open seats are a crap-shoot. No promises here.

Ones to Watch:
CA-20 [Open-D]: Costa (D) over Ashburn (R)
CO-03 [Open-R]: Salazar (D) over Walcher (R)
CT-02 [R]: Simmons (R) over Sullivan (D)
CT-04 [R]: Shays (R) over Farrell (D)
GA-12 [R]: Burns (R) over Barrow (D)
IL-08 [R]: Crane (R) over Bean (D)
IN-09 [D]: Hill (D) over Sordel (R)
IA-03 [D]: Boswell (D) over Thompson (R)
KY-04 [Open-D]: Davis (R) over Clooney (D)
MO-05 [Open-D]: Cleaver (D) over Patterson (R)
NE-01 [Open-R]: Fortenberry (R) over Connealy (D)
NY-27 [Open-R]: Naples (R) over Higgins (D)
NC-11 [R]: Taylor (R) over Keever (D)
SD at large [D]: Herseth (D) over Diedrich (R)
TX-17 [Open-D**]: Wohlgemuth (R) over Edwards (D)
VA-02 [Open-R]: Drake (R) over Ashe (D)
WA-08 [Open-R]: Reichert (R) over Ross (D)

My predictions here are for Republicans to take 2 open Democratic seats, Democrats to take 1 open Republican seat. All incumbents survive, barely. Net from this section is GOP +1.

The rest are here because they are open or were considered competitive at one time. There may be a surprise or two, but most will go as called. Seats not listed here are too numerous to mention and are all considered safe for the incumbent, more-or-less. The controversial Texas House redistricting, which had the Texas Democratic State Legislators fleeing beyond Lone Star borders, on more than one occasion, to avoid the quorum necessary to bring it to a vote last year (before finally caving in), should net the Republicans at least 5 more House seats. It should also end the careers of a few Democratic incumbents, including, most notably, long-time Reps. Martin Frost & Charles Stenholm!

Republican Holds:
AZ-01: Renzi (R) over Babbitt (D)
CO-07: Beauprez (R) over Thomas (D)
FL-13: Harris (R) over Schneider (D)
GA-11: Gingrey (R) over Crawford (D)
IN-08: Hostettler (R) over Jennings (D)
IA-02: Leach (R) over Franker (D)
KS-02: Ryun (R) over Boyda (D)
KY-03: Northrup (R) over Miller (D)
MN-06: Kennedy (R) over Wetterling (D)
NV-03: Porter (R) over Gallagher (D)
NJ-07: Ferguson (R) over Brozak (D)
NM-01: Wilson (R) over Romero (D)
NC-08: Hayes (R) over Troutman (D)
PA-06: Gerlach (R) over Murphy (D)
TX-19**: Neugebauer (R) over Stenholm (D)
TX-32**: Sessions (R) over Frost (D)

Republican Open Seat Holds:
CA-03: Lungren (R) over Castillo (D)
GA-06: Price (R) unopposed
GA-08: Westmoreland (R) over Delamar (D)
LA-01: Jindal (R) over field [No run-off necessary]
MI-07: Schwarz (R) over Renier (D)
NY-29: Kuhl (R) over Berend (D)
NC-05: Foxx (R) over Harrell (D)
NC-10: McHenry (R) over Fischer (D)
PA-08: Fitzpatrick (R) over Schrader (D)
PA-15: Dent (R) over Driscoll (D)
SC-04: Inglis (R) over Brown (D)
WA-05: McMorris (R) over Barbieri (D)

Republican Pick-Ups:
TX-01**: Gohmert (R) over Sandlin (D)
TX-02 [Open-D**]: Poe (R) over Lampson (D)
TX-10 [Open-D**]: McCaul (R) over Sadun (D)
TX-11 [Open-D**]: Conaway (R) over Raasch (D)
TX-24 [Open-D**]: Marchant (R) over Page (D)

Democrat Holds:
FL-02: Boyd (D) over Kilmer (R)
GA-03: Marshall (D) over Clay (R)
KS-03: Moore (D) over Kobach (R)
ME-02: Michaud (D) over Hamel (R)
NV-01: Berkley (D) over Mickelson (R)
NC-01: Butterfield (D) over Dority (R)
ND at large: Pomeroy (D) over Sand (R)
OR-01: Wu (D) over Ameri (R)
OR-05: Hooley (D) over Zupancic (R)
TN-04: Davis (D) over Bowling (R)
UT-02: Matheson (D) over Swallow (R)

Democrat Open Seat Holds:
FL-20: Schultz (D) over Hostetter (R)
GA-04: McKinney (D) over Davis (R)
IL-03: Lipinski (D) over Chlada (R)
MO-03: Carnahan (D) over Federer (R)
OK-02: Boren (D) over Smalley (D)
PA-13: Schwartz (D) over Brown (R)
TX-09**: Green (D) over Molina (R)
TX-28**: Cuellar (D) over Hopson (R)
WI-04: Moore (D) over Boyle (R)

Democrat Pick-Ups:
No clear pick-ups. See "Ones to Watch" above.

*The two open seats likely headed for run-offs between the top two vote-getters, December 4, (due to election rules unique to the State of Louisiana) are LA-03 [R] and LA-07 [D]. No candidate in either of these races will likely receive the required 50% + 1 of the popular vote. Louisiana has no primaries, opting instead to conduct "open" elections. As a result, you will often find multiple Republicans, Democrats and assorted third party candidates and Independents all vying for a single open Congressional or Senate seat in the General Election. When no one can achieve a clear majority, a run-off of the top two candidates is held to determine the final winner.

**Due to U.S. House redistricting in Texas, which takes effect when the 109th Congress is sworn-in in January 2005 (until then, previous districting applies), some incumbents may have been moved into a different District by new boundary lines. A seat is defined as open if current incumbent for a given numbered Congressional District is not in the race for that District's newly defined seat. Some candidates for these open seats are incumbents in entirely different existing Districts. Other Districts pit two incumbent Congressmen against each other. I know it is confusing, but that's the way it is.

I also predict that the so-called Defense of Marriage Amendment, which would define marriage as being between one man and one woman in those states in which it is passed (pending, of course, the inevitable endless court challenges), will pass in all the states where it now appears on the ballot. The only state where it may even possibly be close is Oregon. This issue helps President Bush in all those states by turning out deeply religious voters and traditional values advocates, who feel very strongly about this issue. They are also most likely to support the President and other Republican candidates due to their mostly conservative natures.

The 11 states where some form of this Amendment appears on the ballot in this election are: AR, GA, KY, MI, MS, MT, ND, OH, OK, OR, and UT.

Similar measures have already been passed in some form in AK, HI, LA, MO, NE and NV.

More information on this issue is available here.