Wednesday, November 03, 2004

Election 2004 Results

It is time to review the results of yesterday's general election and compare them to my earlier predictions. All-in-all, I must say I didn't do too badly. My one and only real big miss was the margin of Bush's victory over Kerry. Up until the last few days, I had been much more cautious about tossing too many Gore states over into the President's column, but I allowed my enthusiasm and optimism to cloud my judgment. Lesson learned. In the future, I will make predictions more with my head than with my gut feelings.

My feelings about the polls being way off were both right and wrong. Many of the polls were, in fact, dreadfully wrong (Zogby, American Research Group and The L.A. Times, as well as the most-recent batches from CNN/USA Today/Gallup and Fox News/Opinion Dynamics to name a few), but there were others that had a pretty good read on the race (e.g. Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon). I guess I know who I'll pay closer attention to next time, and who I will continue to feel quite right to ignore.

My Senate predictions turned out pretty darned good. I missed only one call in the Senate out of nine competitive races (88.9% efficiency). Not bad! The only reason I missed the other one (picking Coors over Salazar) was due to my mistrust in the polls again, especially considering their track record in the last Colorado Senate race as I explained in my write-up. Still, a terrific night for the GOP in the Senate! Bye-bye, Mr. Daschle, don't let the door hit you in the posterior on the way out!

As for the House, I didn't too badly there either. Only two races not included in the "Ones to Watch" section were even close (I still had the winners of both called correctly) and overall, I missed on only four picks, all of them rated as tossups from the get-go. The GOP gained seats here also, as expected. What a night!

I have to say, however, that the biggest losers last night were not any of the candidates, but the mainstream media and their laughable exit-polling system! Early in the afternoon, some of the results of these "exit polls" were being leaked, posted on the Internet and hyped by left-wing bloggers as proof-positive of an impeding Kerry landslide! What a bunch of poor, delusional souls! Many in the media, who have free access to these polls and had come to rely on them over the years (inspite of recent evidence that they were suspect at best), began to change their attitudes throughout the course of the afternoon and early evening, before the polls had even closed in a single state, in a way that betrayed both their partisan bent and what they think they knew was going on. No wonder they couldn't call any of the Bush states without waiting for massive amounts of actual returns to come in! According to their precious polling data, Bush was going to lose an untold number of the states he ended up winning by comfortable margins!

To watch so many of these "impartial" liberal hacks on television have those smug smiles wiped off their faces as the evening wore on and reality Bush-whacked them up-side their swelled heads was too beautiful for words! Some of them really seemed as if they might cry and others started making wildly goofy statements as they all sat there stunned by this most-unwelcomed turn of events! It seems the actual Will-of-the-People did not match the growing expectations that they had suceeded in their relentless efforts to hatchet-job a much hated Republican President into an early retirement! I told you watching the mainstream media meltdown Tuesday was going to be fun, and they set themselves up for it all the more wonderfully with their pathetic polls! Maybe they've learned a valuable lesson here about counting their chickens before they've hatched, or about becoming too emotionally involved and developing a vested interest in a process in which they are supposed to be impartial observers, or about letting actual vote counts decide the outcome of elections. Maybe, but somehow I doubt it! Oh, well, serves them right!

What follows are the (somewhat preliminary) results of some of the more interesting races from this election...

President of the United States:
George W. Bush (R) 51% over John F. Kerry (D) 48%

Electoral College Votes*:
Bush 274 over Kerry 252
(12 Electoral Votes unresolved, all leaning Bush)

Bush States (29):

Kerry States (19 + DC):
CA, CT, DE, HI*, IL, ME*, MD, MA, MI*, MN*, NH*, NJ*, NY, OR, PA*, RI, VT, WA, WI*, DC

States Unresolved - Leaning Bush (2):

U.S. Senate: GOP +4*
55 Republicans, 44 Democrats, 1 Independent (leans Democrat)

Republican Holds:
AK: Murkowski (R) 49% over Knowles (D) 45%
KY: Bunning (R) 51% over Mongiardo (D) 49%
OK [Open-R]: Coburn (R) 53% over Carson (D) 41%

Republican Pickups:
FL [Open-D]: Martinez (R) 50% over Castor (D) 48%
GA [Open-D]: Isakson (R) 58% over Majette (D) 40%
LA [Open-D]: Vitter (R) 51% over John (D) 29%
NC [Open-D]: Burr (R) 52% over Bowles (D) 47%
SC [Open-D]: DeMint (R) 54% over Tenenbaum (D) 44%
SD: Thune (R) 51% over Daschle (D) 49%

Democrat Holds:
WA: Murray (D) 55% over Nethercutt (D) 43%
WI: Feingold (D) 56% over Michels (R) 44%

Democrat Pickups:
CO [Open-R]*: Salazar (D) 51% over Coors (R) 47%
IL [Open-R]: Obama (D) 70% over Keyes (R) 27%

U.S. House of Representatives: GOP +4*
231 Republicans, 200 Democrats, 1 Independent (leans Dem)

(3 races remain unresolved)

Republican Holds:
CT-02: Simmons (R) 54% over Sullivan (D) 46%
CT-04: Shays (R) 52% over Farrell (D) 48%
NE-01 [Open-R]: Fortenberry (R) 54% over Connealy (D) 43%
NC-11: Taylor (R) 55% over Keever (D) 45%
**PA-06: Gerlach (R) 51% over Murphy (D) 49%
TX-19: Neugebauer (R) 58% over Stenholm (D) 40%
TX-32: Sessions (R) 54% over Frost (D) 44%
VA-02 [Open-R]: Drake (R) 55% over Ashe (D) 45%
WA-08 [Open-R]: Reichert (R) 51% over Ross (D) 47%

Republican Pickups:
IN-09*: Sodrel (R) 49% over Hill (D) 49% (1,365 vote margin)
KY-04 [Open-D]: Davis (R) 54% over Clooney (D) 44%
TX-01: Gohmert (R) 61% over Sandlin (D) 38%
TX-02 [Open-D]: Poe (R) 55% over Lampson (D) 43%
TX-10 [Open-D]: McCaul (R) 84% over Fritsche (L) 16%
TX-11 [Open-D]: Conaway (R) 77% over Raasch (D) 22%
TX-24 [Open-D]: Marchant (R) 64% over Page (D) 34%

Democrat Holds:
CA-20 [Open-D]: Costa (D) 54% over Ashburn (R) 46%
IA-03: Boswell (D) 55% over Thompson (R) 45%
**MO-03 [Open-D]: Carnahan (D) 53% over Federer (R) 45%
MO-05 [Open-D]: Cleaver (D) 55% over Patterson (R) 42%
SD at large: Herseth (D) 53% over Diedrich (R) 46%
TX-17 [Open-D]*: Edwards (D) 51% over Wohlgemuth (R) 48%

Democrat Pickups:
CO-03 [Open-R]: Salazar (D) 51% over Walcher(R) 46%
GA-12*: Barrow (D) 52% over Burns (R) 48%
IL-08*: Bean (D) 52% over Crane (R) 48%

Unresolved (Likely Democrat Pickup):
NY-27 [Open-R]*: Higgins (D) 51% leads Naples (R) 49% (99% Rptg)

Run-off Elections (Dec. 4):
LA-03 [Open-R]: Tauzin III (R) favored over Melancon (D)
LA-07 [Open-D]: Mount (D) versus Boustany (R) - Tossup

*Prediction was incorrect.
**Closer than anticipated.

As predicted, the Colorado Electoral Votes will remain winner-take-all and the Defense of Marriage provision passed everywhere it was voted on. Also of note, Florida voters decided it would be a good idea to make it so that their minor daughters could not seek abortions without parental notification except in rare and extreme cases. Go figure!

Colorado - Electoral Vote Reallocation:
Yes 34%, No 66%

Florida - Parental Notification Amendment:
Yes 65%, No 35%

Same-Sex Marriage Bans:
AR: Yes 75%, No 25%
GA: Yes 76%, No 24%
KY: Yes 75%, No 25%
MI: Yes 59%, No 41%
MS: Yes 86%, No 14%
MT: Yes 67%, No 33%
ND: Yes 73%, No 27%
OH: Yes 62%, No 38%
OK: Yes 76%, No 24%
OR: Yes 57%, No 43%
UT: Yes 66%, No 34%

Finally, a gold-star and a tip-of-the-cap to President for the best estimate on the results of the Presidential race! If the current results hold up, they hit the Electoral College right on the nose, calling every state correctly! Bravo!

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