Wednesday, June 07, 2006

0 For 20

Democratsin08: “Ture(sic) we could have won but still. We had a soccer mom running and she cam within 4.25% of winning in a huge, HUGE Republican district. They have nothing to celebrate about.

No matter what the media says, no Democrat should be mistaken about this result. First, this is a huge, seismic shift in our favor that bodes extremely well for November. If we receive an 18% shift nationwide, we will win the House easily. If Republican candidates are pulling only 20% of the independent vote, the Indycrat realignment is still on.”

I say on to November. Where we take back the House. And if Ford get’s his act together by then. We will take back the Senate. Am I right?”


The writer cited above is a commenter on the Daily Kos blog, which has extended its streak to a perfect 0-20 in predicting elections. The writer takes glee in the fact that Republican Brian Bilray only won the California 50th Congressional District special election by less than 5% in a "huge" Republican district. What he neglects to say is that President Bush carried this "huge" Republican district by 55% in 2004. Additionally, there were two other candidates - Independent William Griffin (who was supported by the Minutemen border patrol) and Libertarian Paul King - who cumulatively got about 5% of the total vote.

A dispassionate observer would look at the result and conclude that the Democrats were unable to break the 45% level despite having a number of things going their way. The Kos crowd, though, see this election as a victory, and a bellwether for the 2006 midterm elections. That's why they are 0-20. "Reality based", indeed! ;-)


Thanks for the link!

But That's Just My Opinion

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